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Sourcing · Independent verification · continued

Blind submission and why it changes minds — the long version posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

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KnowltonTL3Regular7 May 2026#61
f.sjoberg, post #40: Marking my place. If it changes for me I will come back and say so. Go to post

Post #58 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Two claims get bundled together under Blind submission and they need separating. The descriptive one — this is what was observed — is usually well supported. The causal one — this is why — usually is not.

Almost every disagreement in threads like this one dissolves once you say which of the two you are making.

4 likes in reply to #40 3mo
JH
j.hartmannTL27 May 2026#62

That is consistent with mine, for whatever one more account is worth.

13 likes 3mo
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VThorvaldsenTL3Regular8 May 2026#63

What would change my mind on Blind submission is a second dataset collected by someone with no stake in the first. Until then I hold it loosely and I would rather say so than pretend to more.

0 likes 3mo
SA
s.achebeTL28 May 2026#64

Repeat testing: if you want to verify the same lot a second time, testing with a different service strengthens the conclusion. Testing with the same service verifies reproducibility but uses the same method.

I am not the right person to answer the follow-up to this.

0 likes 3mo
PA
p.amankwahTL29 May 2026#65
r.weiss, post #50: The record shows what was measured. Everything beyond that is inference and this site tries to keep the line visible. Take the reasoning and check the arithmetic; I do not always get it right. Go to post

Confirming post #63 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

It does not extend to lots nobody has seen, it is not a recommendation, and it says nothing about anything other than what was measured.

One case, stated as one case.

8 likes in reply to #50 3mo
NR
n.rahimiTL29 May 2026#66
DP
d.petrescuTL210 May 2026#67

I would rather this thread reach "we do not know" about Blind submission than reach a confident answer that nobody can support when asked.

0 likes 3mo
IC
i.coelhoTL210 May 2026#68

Repeat determination on the same product line months apart is the measurement that speaks to consistency, and consistency is what most buyers actually want.

2 likes 3mo
AR
ambient_reviewTL3Regular11 May 2026#69

Blind sampling: submitting without the laboratory or seller knowing the source removes the two easiest ways for a result to be shaped: selective submission and selective reporting. The extra effort is worth it.

This is the sort of thing the wiki should carry and currently does not.

12 likes 3mo
AP
a.petrovTL211 May 2026#70
c.marchetti, post #7: That is a fair summary of where the discussion has got to. Go to post

Where the Blind submission reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.

26 likes in reply to #7 3mo
KR
k.roosTL212 May 2026#71

Everything in post #67 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

The version of Blind submission that I was taught turned out to be a teaching simplification. Useful, and not true in the way I had assumed it was.

5 likes 3mo
AW
a.weissTL213 May 2026#72

Repeat testing: if you want to verify the same lot a second time, testing with a different service strengthens the conclusion. Testing with the same service verifies reproducibility but uses the same method.

0 likes 3mo
NL
n.lehtinenTL213 May 2026#73
ambient_draft, post #59: The record shows what was measured. Everything beyond that is inference and this site tries to keep the line visible. Adding it in case it saves somebody the afternoon it cost me. Go to post

Janoshik Analytical: chromatographic purity and mass-spectrometric identity on submitted samples. Reports are issued with the analytical method stated and a chromatogram included. Submission is by mail.

29 likes in reply to #59 3mo
LD
l.dziedzicTL214 May 2026 · edited#74

Reading this Blind submission thread as someone who came in with a fixed view: the third and seventh replies moved me and the confident ones did not.

15 likes 2mo
EK
e.kimaniTL214 May 2026#75

I read post #71 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

The number people quote for Blind submission is a central estimate presented without its interval, and the interval is wide enough that the estimate is nearly uninformative on its own.

3 likes 2mo
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KnowltonTL3Regular15 May 2026#76
vial_table, post #4: Blind submission looks different depending on whether you are reading the primary literature or the summaries of it, and the difference is not in our favour. Go to post

Following this. I have the same question and no better information than the first post.

0 likes in reply to #4 2mo
AA
a.almeidaTL215 May 2026#77
Rodrigues, post #55: An update on my earlier Blind submission post: the pattern held for another six weeks and then stopped, which I did not predict and cannot explain. Go to post

Repeat determination on the same product line months apart is the measurement that speaks to consistency, and consistency is what most buyers actually want.

22 likes in reply to #55 2mo
PS
p.silvaTL216 May 2026#78

Blind submission was covered in the wiki last year and the page has a review date on it, which is a better starting point than my memory of a thread.

10 likes 2mo
TL
t.lindqvistTL216 May 2026#79
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MSaarinenTL3Regular17 May 2026#80
e.kimani, post #75: I read post #71 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite. The number people quote for Blind submission is a central estimate presented without its interval, and the interval is wide enough that the estimate is nearly uninformative on its own. Go to post

The record shows what was measured. Everything beyond that is inference and this site tries to keep the line visible.

Someone should write this up properly, and it should probably not be me.

0 likes in reply to #75 2mo
JH
j.hartmannTL217 May 2026#81

The arithmetic in post #80 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Medutest: combined purity and identity reporting. Appears throughout vendor documentation. Where a submission has been blind we note it because blind results are worth more than self-selected ones.

Written in the hope of being told what I have missed.

2 likes 2mo
DP
d.petrescuTL218 May 2026#82
sterile_file, post #8: An honest declaration on Blind submission: I have a prior here and it is strong enough that you should weight what I say downward. Stating it rather than hiding it. Go to post

I would be cautious about generalising from the Blind submission example above. It is a good example. It is one example.

8 likes in reply to #8 2mo
IC
i.coelhoTL218 May 2026#83

The reason Blind submission is hard to answer is that the obvious measurement and the relevant quantity are not the same thing, and substituting one for the other is silent.

19 likes 2mo
CD
c.dahlbergTL219 May 2026#84

Post #82 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

A record with four results over sixteen months is a thin record rather than a bad one, and the honest description says which.

Take it as a starting point and not as a specification.

0 likes 2mo
JB
j.baptistaTL219 May 2026#85

Noted, and I have changed what I was going to do on the strength of it.

0 likes 2mo
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v.nascimentoTL220 May 2026#86
ni.kravchenko, post #56: A record with four results over sixteen months is a thin record rather than a bad one, and the honest description says which. I would want to see it done twice before believing it once. Go to post

Everything in post #82 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

On Blind submission, I would rather understate and be corrected upward than overstate and be quoted. That is a house style here and it is a good one.

4 likes in reply to #56 2mo
LW
l.wikstromTL220 May 2026#87

The claim about Blind submission upthread is stronger than its source supports. I have read the source. The source says "associated with" and the post says "causes".

13 likes 2mo
FK
f.kimaniTL221 May 2026#88

It does not extend to lots nobody has seen, it is not a recommendation, and it says nothing about anything other than what was measured.

The variance between people here is larger than the effect being discussed.

27 likes 2mo
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KLindqvistTL4 Moderator21 May 2026 · edited#89
b.petrov, post #29: What I would check first on Blind submission is whether the thing being measured moved or whether the way of measuring it moved. Those look identical in a graph. Go to post

Blind submission has a well-known answer and a correct answer, and the interesting work is establishing that they are the same. Nobody has done that here yet.

0 likes in reply to #29 2mo
JP
j.petrovTL222 May 2026#90

Adding what did not work for me on Blind submission, since the failures never get written up and they are half the useful information.

2 likes 2mo