An honest declaration on managing an unplanned gap: I have a prior here and it is strong enough that you should weight what I say downward. Stating it rather than hiding it.
Managing an unplanned gap in supply
Thank you for taking the time. That was more work than a reply usually is.
Noted, and I have changed what I was going to do on the strength of it.
I have three months of notes on managing an unplanned gap and the honest summary is that the trend is real and the week-to-week numbers are noise. I nearly drew the opposite conclusion from the first fortnight.
I would keep managing an unplanned gap and the decision it usually gets used for separate in this thread. They are related and they are not the same question, and merging them is why the last one went badly.
Post #63 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Two sentences on managing an unplanned gap and then I will stop, because the rest is speculation and the thread is better without mine.
What is documented is narrow. What is inferred from it is broad. The gap between them is where every argument here lives.
Narrowing post #102, because the general version has more than one answer.
International supply chains: a shortage in one country does not mean shortage in another. That is why ordering from multiple suppliers before a shortage gets bad is prudent if you can.
That is one dataset and I would not build a rule on it.
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