On the subject in the title: Sample size intuition for a personal experiment Working notes rather than a conclusion.
A follow-up question about sample size intuition that I did not know to ask the first time.
The earlier thread answered what I asked. What I should have asked is below, and I think it is the one that matters.
The arithmetic in post #2 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.
What would change my mind on sample size intuition is a second dataset collected by someone with no stake in the first. Until then I hold it loosely and I would rather say so than pretend to more.
Answering the question the opening post raises rather than the one it answers.
The most common statistical error in this community is not technical: it is treating a self-selected collection of reports as a sample from a population.
The part I am sure of is shorter than the part I have written.
I will take the caveat as seriously as the claim, which is the point of putting it there.
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