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Evidence · Journal club · continued

Second pass at: Journal club: STEP 4 and what a withdrawal design can prove posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

RD
r.danquahTL24 Sep 2025#61

Critical appraisal template: (1) What did the trial set out to estimate? (2) Could the design answer that question? (3) Was the population sufficiently similar to your population to apply the results? (4) What was the absolute effect, not just the relative one? (5) What are the two strongest criticisms available?

The short answer was in the first line; everything after is the working.

26 likes 11mo
RV
r.villalobosTL26 Sep 2025 · edited#62
h.eriksen, post #8: STEP 4 was covered in the wiki last year and the page has a review date on it, which is a better starting point than my memory of a thread. Go to post

Post #61 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

The baseline characteristics table is the single most useful page for the questions that get asked here, because it tells you who the result applies to.

The right answer here may simply be that it has not been measured.

12 likes in reply to #8 11mo
AB
a.batistaTL29 Sep 2025#63

On post #61 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

I would call the community position on STEP 4 likely rather than established, and I would be comfortable defending that hedge.

4 likes 11mo
AN
a.nwosuTL211 Sep 2025#64

STEP 4 is a question about a distribution, not about a value, and treating it as a value is what produces the confident wrong answers.

0 likes 11mo
NN
n.norgaardTL213 Sep 2025#65

I read post #61 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Sessions on negative or null results are consistently the most instructive and the hardest to get anyone to attend.

I am describing what is, rather than arguing for what should be.

0 likes 10mo
FF
f.fenwickTL3Regular16 Sep 2025 · edited#66

Post #65 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

An hour is enough for one paper read properly and not enough for two read partly. The temptation is always to add the second.

18 likes 10mo
OV
o.vogelTL218 Sep 2025#67
z.szabo, post #60: The baseline characteristics table is the single most useful page for the questions that get asked here, because it tells you who the result applies to. This has been discussed before and I could not find the thread, so, again. Go to post

Same experience here, different supplier, so it is at least not unique to one of them.

7 likes in reply to #60 10mo
MD
m.duarteTL220 Sep 2025#68

Practical answer on STEP 4, since the theoretical one is upthread: do the simplest check first, write down the result, and only then decide whether the complicated explanation is needed. It usually is not.

1 like 10mo
GV
g.verhoevenTL223 Sep 2025#69
a.villalobos, post #10: The documentation on STEP 4 is better than this thread and I say that as someone who has posted in the thread. Go to post

Agreed on STEP 4, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states.

13 likes in reply to #10 10mo
Z
ZieglerTL3Regular25 Sep 2025#70
a.nwosu, post #64: STEP 4 is a question about a distribution, not about a value, and treating it as a value is what produces the confident wrong answers. Go to post

The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions.

4 likes in reply to #64 10mo
FF
f.fenwickTL3Regular27 Sep 2025 · edited#71

Post #68 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

A qualification I should have led with rather than closed on.

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KC
k.chukwuTL229 Sep 2025#72

Practical experience of STEP 4, offered as one case with the conditions stated, not as a general finding. Conditions first, because they are what make it interpretable.

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K
KForsbergTL2Member2 Oct 2025#73

STEP 4: I would want to see the raw numbers rather than the summary before agreeing. Summaries lose exactly the information that would settle this.

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KK
k.kimaniTL24 Oct 2025#74

Thank you for the correction. I would rather find out here than later.

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EL
e.lehtinenTL26 Oct 2025#75

Confirming post #72 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

0 likes 10mo
BA
b.aaltoTL29 Oct 2025#76

I had written a reply contradicting post #75 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping.

That is the shape of it. The detail is where I would expect to be corrected.

2 likes 10mo
RF
r.friskTL211 Oct 2025#77
f.fenwick, post #71: Post #68 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition. Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later. A qualification I should have led with rather than closed on. Go to post

I would be cautious about generalising from the STEP 4 example above. It is a good example. It is one example.

8 likes in reply to #71 10mo
HF
h.ferrariTL213 Oct 2025#78
j.marchetti, post #12: This is the first time the answer has come with its own limits attached. Appreciated. Go to post

What I would check first on STEP 4 is whether the thing being measured moved or whether the way of measuring it moved. Those look identical in a graph.

19 likes in reply to #12 9mo
TW
t.waldenstrmTL215 Oct 2025#79
SR
s.radichTL218 Oct 2025#80

STEP 4 has a well-known answer and a correct answer, and the interesting work is establishing that they are the same. Nobody has done that here yet.

0 likes 9mo
KF
k.fonsecaTL220 Oct 2025#81

The number people quote for STEP 4 is a central estimate presented without its interval, and the interval is wide enough that the estimate is nearly uninformative on its own.

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RD
r.danquahTL222 Oct 2025#82

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

3 likes 9mo
RV
r.villalobosTL224 Oct 2025#83

Where I part company with post #80, and it is a narrow parting.

Reading this STEP 4 thread as someone who came in with a fixed view: the third and seventh replies moved me and the confident ones did not.

0 likes 9mo
OV
o.vogelTL226 Oct 2025#84
AV
a.vukovicTL229 Oct 2025#85

On STEP 4, I would rather understate and be corrected upward than overstate and be quoted. That is a house style here and it is a good one.

16 likes 9mo
BN
bench_notesTL4 Moderator31 Oct 2025#86

Narrowing post #83, because the general version has more than one answer.

Whatever the answer on STEP 4 turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, invite the correction.

6 likes 9mo
KP
k.perrinTL22 Nov 2025#87
f.fenwick, post #71: Post #68 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition. Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later. A qualification I should have led with rather than closed on. Go to post

Second this, and I would have said it less carefully.

0 likes in reply to #71 9mo
KV
k.vanheckeTL24 Nov 2025#88
q.zhao_qa, post #53: The question underneath STEP 4 is usually "how would I tell?" rather than "what is true?", and that one has a method attached to it. Write down what you would expect to see under each hypothesis before you collect anything. If they predict the same observation, collecting it will not help. Go to post

The baseline characteristics table is the single most useful page for the questions that get asked here, because it tells you who the result applies to.

That is the version I would defend. It is not the version I started with.

31 likes in reply to #53 9mo
RE
r.erdoganTL26 Nov 2025#89
compounding_ruth, post #34: The most useful thing anyone has posted about STEP 4 in this category was a table of what had been measured and by whom. That is what I would want again. Go to post

On post #88 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

A conflict-of-interest statement is worth reading aloud and is worth very little as a predictor. Design quality is what to spend the session on.

22 likes in reply to #34 9mo
NA
n.abernathyTL3Analytical chemist9 Nov 2025#90

The version of STEP 4 that I was taught turned out to be a teaching simplification. Useful, and not true in the way I had assumed it was.

10 likes 9mo