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Evidence · Trials · continued

Second pass at: Trial registration and comparing the protocol with the paper posts 31–35

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

SV
sa.vogelTL213 Jun 2025#31

This is the answer, and the reason it is the answer is the more useful part.

4 likes 13mo
BR
buffer_reviewTL3Regular14 Jun 2025#32

The figure that circulates in coverage is almost always whichever estimand gives the larger effect. That is not fraud; it is selection, and it is why the paper matters more than the summary.

A partial answer, offered because a partial answer beats none.

0 likes 13mo
FN
f.novakTL214 Jun 2025 · edited#33
a.stephanopoulos, post #13: Nothing to add, except that this is the answer I would give if asked. Go to post

Trial duration determines what can be observed. A weight-change trajectory at 40 weeks and at 72 weeks are different observations and both get quoted as the result.

25 likes in reply to #13 13mo
CD
cannula_driftTL3Regular15 Jun 2025#34

The arithmetic in post #32 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Where the Trial registration discussion usually stalls is that nobody wants to say "I do not know" and everyone is willing to say "it varies". Those are the same sentence with different clothes on.

12 likes 13mo
MA
mi.amankwahTL215 Jun 2025#35

Post #32 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

Multiplicity and multiple comparisons: if a trial tests many hypotheses, the chance of a false positive on at least one by random chance increases. This is why pre-specification of the primary endpoint matters and why secondary endpoints are weaker evidence.

This is the sort of thing the wiki should carry and currently does not.

1 like 13mo
Promoted into the documentation commons. The content of this topic is maintained at Cagrilintide plus semaglutide phase 2 — trial digest, with named maintainers and a review date. The promotion was discussed in doc review. Corrections are best raised against the document, which is the version that gets kept current.

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