Selection into a registry and what it does to the estimate — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.
Working notes on selection rather than a conclusion. I would rather post the reasoning while it can still be corrected than post the answer once I am committed to it.
Everything below is checkable. Where I have taken a figure from somewhere else I have said where; where I have estimated, I have said that too.
Confirming the opening post from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.
Choosing the worst interpretation: "The confidence interval includes a harmful effect" is true if the CI goes from -1 to +5. But assuming the worst-case scenario is not how you use the evidence. The point estimate and the precision both matter.
That is one dataset and I would not build a rule on it.
On the opening post — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.
Sample size calculated on an optimistic effect estimate produces a trial that is underpowered for the effect that actually exists. That is visible in the protocol.
The answer changed when I changed how I was measuring, which was informative.
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