This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1 · go to the accepted answer.
Grateful for the specificity. Vague answers to this question are what sent me looking.
This follows post #29 rather than contradicting it.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
This is the sort of thing that ought to be settled and apparently is not.
A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.
Post #33 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
I checked the source rather than the summary, and they differ.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
That is the honest state of it as of this week.
Narrowing post #37, because the general version has more than one answer.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
That is what the documentation says. What happens in practice is usually close.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
I would not lead a decision with this, but I would not ignore it either.
Nothing to add on the substance. Thank you for taking the question at face value.
Reading rather than contributing, but this is the most useful thread I have found on it.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
That is a description of practice, not a recommendation of it.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
Adding a source would improve this post and I do not have one to hand.
Post #42 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
Not the answer, but possibly the question that gets there.
Post #42 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.
Tracking accuracy at each hop is a reasonable proxy for how much attention the shipment is getting, and it costs nothing to note.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
It is worth checking rather than assuming, which costs nothing.
Post #48 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
It is one reading of the data and not the only reasonable one.
Where I part company with post #51, and it is a narrow parting.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
Post #51 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.
Carrier handover between an international and a domestic service is where tracking most often goes quiet, and it is usually silence rather than a problem.
Small point, but it is the one that usually catches people.
The arithmetic in post #55 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
Post #55 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.
A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.
If that reads as pedantic, it is, and it has saved me twice.
I came in to disagree and I am leaving without a disagreement.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
On reflection I would soften that slightly.