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Evidence · Journal club · continued

Follow-up: Journal club: orforglipron phase 2 and the non-peptide question posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

L
LeitermanTL3Regular30 Aug 2025#61

Narrowing post #60, because the general version has more than one answer.

The honest answer on orforglipron phase 2 is that it depends, and the useful part is the list of what it depends on. Four items, in rough order of how much they matter.

Most people get the first two right and then argue about the fourth.

15 likes 11mo
GE
g.ekstromTL231 Aug 2025#62

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

30 likes 11mo
JV
j.vandermolenTL3Regular31 Aug 2025#63

Orforglipron phase 2 came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction.

1 like 11mo
NS
n.serranoTL231 Aug 2025#64
v.milanovi, post #18: The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping. Go to post

Recording who prepared each section makes the summary attributable, which matters when somebody reads it eighteen months later and wants to ask a question.

6 likes in reply to #18 11mo
JH
j.habermannTL3Regular1 Sep 2025#65
b.demir, post #39: The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions. It is worth checking rather than assuming, which costs nothing. Go to post

TRIUMPH (ongoing): Retatrutide phase 3. No results yet. Nothing should be attributed to it because it has not finished. When it does, this discussion will return to it.

21 likes in reply to #39 11mo
NS
ni.stanescuTL21 Sep 2025#66
id.almeida, post #54: Following this. I have the same question and no better information than the first post. Go to post

On orforglipron phase 2 I would separate what is worth knowing from what is worth acting on. The first list is long and the second is short, and conflating them is how threads get heated.

0 likes in reply to #54 11mo
B
BBramleyTL3Regular1 Sep 2025#67

The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping.

Second-hand, so weight it accordingly.

2 likes 11mo
TT
t.tullochTL22 Sep 2025 · edited#68

Post #64 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

Checked the orforglipron phase 2 claim against the primary source this morning. It survives, with a narrower scope than the version quoted here. Posting the narrower scope.

9 likes 11mo
CB
careful_beginnerTL1Member2 Sep 2025#69

Seconded. It reads as careful rather than confident, which is the right register.

29 likes 11mo
MR
m.ramosTL22 Sep 2025#70
j.habermann, post #65: TRIUMPH (ongoing): Retatrutide phase 3. No results yet. Nothing should be attributed to it because it has not finished. When it does, this discussion will return to it. Go to post

Post #68 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Since orforglipron phase 2 keeps coming up, it should probably be a maintained page rather than a recurring thread. I am happy to draft it if someone with more direct experience will review it.

0 likes in reply to #65 11mo
LO
l.oseiTL23 Sep 2025#71
h.brandt, post #60: Reporting rather than recommending, on orforglipron phase 2. What happened is above. Whether it should have is a different question and not one I am qualified to answer. Go to post

Sessions on negative or null results are consistently the most instructive and the hardest to get anyone to attend.

I am confident about the direction and much less about the magnitude.

4 likes in reply to #60 11mo
MR
m.restrepoTL23 Sep 2025#72

Adding the measurement that post #71 says would settle it.

Where I have landed on orforglipron phase 2, having got it wrong once in public: the direction is clear, the magnitude is not, and anyone quoting a precise magnitude has borrowed it from somewhere that did not measure it.

0 likes 11mo
LP
l.piresTL23 Sep 2025#73

Where I part company with post #71, and it is a narrow parting.

Bringing the previous paper on the same question makes the session much better and doubles the preparation. Worth doing every third session rather than every one.

The strength of my opinion here exceeds the strength of my evidence.

25 likes 11mo
AA
a.asanteTL24 Sep 2025#74

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

12 likes 11mo
O
OstrowskiTL2Member4 Sep 2025#75

People arriving without having read it should be welcome and should say so, because a question from someone who has not read it frequently exposes an assumption everyone else made.

1 like 11mo
HN
h.nwosuTL24 Sep 2025 · edited#76

Worth separating orforglipron phase 2 as a question about the compound from orforglipron phase 2 as a question about the documentation. They get answered by different people and only one of them is answerable here.

0 likes 11mo
T
ThibodeauTL3Regular5 Sep 2025#77

Post #75 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

The question underneath orforglipron phase 2 is usually "how would I tell?" rather than "what is true?", and that one has a method attached to it.

Write down what you would expect to see under each hypothesis before you collect anything. If they predict the same observation, collecting it will not help.

18 likes 11mo
FC
f.chowdhuryTL25 Sep 2025#78
Ostrowski, post #75: People arriving without having read it should be welcome and should say so, because a question from someone who has not read it frequently exposes an assumption everyone else made. Go to post

That is clearer than the version I had in my head. Thank you.

7 likes in reply to #75 11mo
F
FFaulknerTL3Regular5 Sep 2025#79

Worth separating two things that post #75 runs together.

Sessions on negative or null results are consistently the most instructive and the hardest to get anyone to attend.

0 likes 11mo
VO
v.okonkwoTL26 Sep 2025#80

Critical appraisal template: (1) What did the trial set out to estimate? (2) Could the design answer that question? (3) Was the population sufficiently similar to your population to apply the results? (4) What was the absolute effect, not just the relative one? (5) What are the two strongest criticisms available?

0 likes 11mo
GE
g.ekstromTL26 Sep 2025#81

Bringing the previous paper on the same question makes the session much better and doubles the preparation. Worth doing every third session rather than every one.

9 likes 11mo
B
BBramleyTL3Regular6 Sep 2025#82
i.balogun, post #49: That is a fair summary of where the discussion has got to. Go to post

If you are new and reading this thread for the answer to orforglipron phase 2: the answer is conditional, the conditions are in the third reply, and the rest of the thread is worth skipping.

21 likes in reply to #49 11mo
TT
t.tullochTL27 Sep 2025#83

Confirming post #80 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

My position on orforglipron phase 2 is current rather than settled. I have revised it once already and I expect to again, so treat it accordingly.

0 likes 11mo
VD
vial_deskTL3Regular7 Sep 2025#84

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

1 like 11mo
EM
e.mensaTL27 Sep 2025#85

A note on how orforglipron phase 2 gets discussed rather than on orforglipron phase 2 itself: the confident posts get the replies and the careful ones get ignored, and the careful ones have been right more often.

5 likes 11mo
AR
ambient_reviewTL3Regular8 Sep 2025#86
impurity_table, post #42: Nothing to add, except that this is the answer I would give if asked. Go to post

Worth stating the null on orforglipron phase 2 before we explain it: the observation may be nothing. That possibility deserves a sentence and usually does not get one.

15 likes in reply to #42 11mo
PO
pe.onwukaTL28 Sep 2025#87

That is a cleaner way of putting what I was circling around.

30 likes 11mo
TT
taper_tableTL3Regular8 Sep 2025 · edited#88

Where I part company with post #86, and it is a narrow parting.

The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions.

I would be interested in a counterexample if anyone has one.

0 likes 11mo
MA
m.agyemanTL29 Sep 2025 · edited#89
h.fonseca, post #15: Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later. Go to post

Taking post #88 at face value and following it one step further.

I read the earlier replies on orforglipron phase 2 twice before writing this, because I had assumed the opposite and wanted to be sure I was disagreeing with what was said rather than what I expected.

3 likes in reply to #15 11mo
EC
excursion_checkTL3Regular9 Sep 2025#90

Post #86 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

The arithmetic on orforglipron phase 2 is the easy part and it is where the errors are, which is an uncomfortable combination. Show your working and someone will catch it.

10 likes 11mo