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Evidence · Journal club · continued

Journal club: LEADER as the historical anchor posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

CO
c.ostergaardTL216 Apr 2026#61
ar.petrov, post #49: On LEADER, I would rather understate and be corrected upward than overstate and be quoted. That is a house style here and it is a good one. Go to post

What I can speak to on LEADER is narrow, so I will keep it narrow rather than generalising from it. Beyond that boundary I do not know.

0 likes in reply to #49 3mo
HS
hana.satoTL4 Moderator19 Apr 2026#62

Post #61 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping.

Not a conclusion. A place to stand while looking for one.

0 likes 3mo
HI
h.iyerTL221 Apr 2026#63

Answering the question post #61 raises rather than the one it answers.

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

I have written this out at length because the short version keeps being misread.

17 likes 3mo
PI
p.iyer_pharmdTL3Pharmacist23 Apr 2026#64

An update on my earlier LEADER post: the pattern held for another six weeks and then stopped, which I did not predict and cannot explain.

7 likes 3mo
NV
n.villalobosTL225 Apr 2026#65
diluent_watch, post #46: Picking up post #43: that is the part I would want checked first. LEADER: I have looked for the primary source twice and failed twice. Either it does not exist or it is somewhere I do not know to look, and I would like to know which. Go to post

What I would tell a new member reading about LEADER for the first time: the confident posts are not the reliable ones, and the reliable ones are longer.

0 likes in reply to #46 3mo
BI
blank_injectionTL2Analytical chemist27 Apr 2026#66

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

25 likes 3mo
SA
s.antonsenTL230 Apr 2026 · edited#67

Everything in post #65 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Adding a null result on LEADER. I looked, carefully, and found nothing, and null results deserve posting precisely because they never are.

12 likes 3mo
FP
forest_plotTL3Evidence synthesis2 May 2026#68
h.iyer, post #63: Answering the question post #61 raises rather than the one it answers. Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows. I have written this out at length because the short version keeps being misread. Go to post

I will take the caveat as seriously as the claim, which is the point of putting it there.

4 likes in reply to #63 3mo
SD
s.duarteTL24 May 2026#69

Where the LEADER reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.

3 likes 3mo
AS
a.sorensenTL26 May 2026#70

The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions.

0 likes 3mo
Z
ZieglerTL3Regular8 May 2026#71

Taking post #69 at face value and following it one step further.

The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping.

The interesting part of this is the exception, and I do not understand the exception.

0 likes 3mo
BJ
b.jansenTL210 May 2026#72

LEADER came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction.

0 likes 3mo
W
WickramasingheTL2Member12 May 2026#73
Woodhouse, post #48: The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions. Adding this to the thread rather than to the wiki, because I am not confident enough for the wiki. Go to post

Checked the LEADER claim against the primary source this morning. It survives, with a narrower scope than the version quoted here. Posting the narrower scope.

4 likes in reply to #48 3mo
WM
w.moreauTL214 May 2026 · edited#74
n.villalobos, post #65: What I would tell a new member reading about LEADER for the first time: the confident posts are not the reliable ones, and the reliable ones are longer. Go to post

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

If that reads as pedantic, it is, and it has saved me twice.

13 likes in reply to #65 2mo
LA
l.aaltonenTL3Regular17 May 2026#75

On LEADER I would separate what is worth knowing from what is worth acting on. The first list is long and the second is short, and conflating them is how threads get heated.

27 likes 2mo
DN
d.ndiayeTL219 May 2026#76

Useful. I have added it to my own notes with the date on it.

0 likes 2mo
HN
h.nicolaidesTL3Regular21 May 2026#77
n.rowntree, post #58: I read post #57 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite. Offering a way to settle LEADER rather than another opinion about it. Two measurements, taken the same way, a fortnight apart. If the difference is within the noise, the question was not answerable at this precision. Go to post

Counterpoint on LEADER, offered without confidence: the same observation is consistent with a much duller explanation, and nobody has ruled the dull one out.

2 likes in reply to #58 2mo
PO
p.onwukaTL223 May 2026#78

I read post #74 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Sessions on negative or null results are consistently the most instructive and the hardest to get anyone to attend.

Worth one more sentence than it usually gets.

8 likes 2mo
AZ
a.zamoraTL225 May 2026#79

Since LEADER keeps coming up, it should probably be a maintained page rather than a recurring thread. I am happy to draft it if someone with more direct experience will review it.

0 likes 2mo
DT
d.tammTL227 May 2026#80

Reporting rather than recommending, on LEADER. What happened is above. Whether it should have is a different question and not one I am qualified to answer.

4 likes 2mo
CA
c.adebayoTL229 May 2026#81
s.duarte, post #69: Where the LEADER reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for. Go to post

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

I have no interest in any supplier named above.

0 likes in reply to #69 2mo
HK
h.karlsenTL231 May 2026#82
se.okafor, post #51: This follows post #50 rather than contradicting it. The baseline characteristics table is the single most useful page for the questions that get asked here, because it tells you who the result applies to. A partial answer, offered because a partial answer beats none. Go to post

Second-hand on LEADER, so weight it accordingly — someone whose method I trust told me this and I have not verified it myself.

0 likes in reply to #51 2mo
DB
d.barrosTL22 Jun 2026 · edited#83

Post #79 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

The bit of LEADER that nobody enjoys is that the answer changes depending on what you are trying to decide with it. Say what the decision is and the thread will converge.

12 likes 2mo
MI
m.ivaturiTL24 Jun 2026#84

Adding a data point of agreement rather than a data point.

4 likes 2mo
NV
n.vogelTL26 Jun 2026#85

The baseline characteristics table is the single most useful page for the questions that get asked here, because it tells you who the result applies to.

If this contradicts something upthread, the upthread version may well be the better one.

0 likes 2mo
OC
o.cousineauTL3Regular8 Jun 2026#86
o.nyberg, post #45: On post #43 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification. Posting my LEADER numbers with the method attached so they can be discounted properly. Uncontrolled, unblinded, and collected by someone who wanted a particular answer. Go to post

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

The part I am sure of is shorter than the part I have written.

26 likes in reply to #45 2mo
SF
s.ferreiraTL210 Jun 2026#87
CN
c.niemelTL3Regular12 Jun 2026#88

Building on post #86 rather than restating it.

Where the LEADER discussion usually stalls is that nobody wants to say "I do not know" and everyone is willing to say "it varies". Those are the same sentence with different clothes on.

2 likes 2mo
SS
system_suitabilityTL3Analytical chemist14 Jun 2026#89

I had written a reply contradicting post #88 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

The number is defensible. The precision I gave it is not.

3 likes 1mo
ZO
z.okonkwoTL216 Jun 2026#90
j.palacios, post #38: Answering the question post #34 raises rather than the one it answers. Two things can be true about LEADER at once: the mechanism is plausible and the evidence for the size of the effect is thin. Most of the argument here is people defending the first against attacks on the second. Go to post

Confirming post #88 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

A note on how LEADER gets discussed rather than on LEADER itself: the confident posts get the replies and the careful ones get ignored, and the careful ones have been right more often.

0 likes in reply to #38 1mo