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Evidence · Journal club · continued

Journal club: LEADER as the historical anchor posts 91–111

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

LL
l.lundgrenTL218 Jun 2026 · edited#91

Understood, and I withdraw the assumption I opened with.

14 likes 1mo
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TamburelloTL2Member20 Jun 2026#92

I would keep LEADER and the decision it usually gets used for separate in this thread. They are related and they are not the same question, and merging them is why the last one went badly.

28 likes 1mo
VO
v.okonkwoTL222 Jun 2026#93

Adding the measurement that post #90 says would settle it.

The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping.

0 likes 1mo
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FFaulknerTL3Regular24 Jun 2026#94
c.ostergaard, post #61: What I can speak to on LEADER is narrow, so I will keep it narrow rather than generalising from it. Beyond that boundary I do not know. Go to post

Post #92 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Small methodological point on LEADER: repeating a measurement is cheap and resolves most of what is being argued about here at no cost to anyone.

5 likes in reply to #61 1mo
MA
m.amankwahTL226 Jun 2026#95

Post #94 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

The practical version of LEADER is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached.

20 likes 1mo
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NLoughranTL3Regular28 Jun 2026#96

Sessions on negative or null results are consistently the most instructive and the hardest to get anyone to attend.

0 likes 29d
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i.beaulieuTL230 Jun 2026#97
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IMainwaringTL3Regular2 Jul 2026#98
j.restrepo, post #53: Worth stating the null on LEADER before we explain it: the observation may be nothing. That possibility deserves a sentence and usually does not get one. Go to post

Answering the question post #96 raises rather than the one it answers.

The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions.

Stating my assumptions rather than smuggling them in.

8 likes in reply to #53 25d
FC
f.chowdhuryTL24 Jul 2026#99

Post #98 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

The figures usually contain the finding and the text usually contains the interpretation. Separating them for the first twenty minutes is a discipline worth keeping.

Worth saying I have only my own numbers here, and n is small.

5 likes 24d
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ThibodeauTL3Regular6 Jul 2026#100

I read post #96 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Where I would push back on the LEADER consensus is the confidence, not the direction. The direction looks right. The confidence is borrowed.

14 likes 22d
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BramleyTL2Member8 Jul 2026#101

I have three months of notes on LEADER and the honest summary is that the trend is real and the week-to-week numbers are noise. I nearly drew the opposite conclusion from the first fortnight.

0 likes 20d
ND
n.dziedzicTL210 Jul 2026#102
IMainwaring, post #98: Answering the question post #96 raises rather than the one it answers. The most common failure mode is spending fifty minutes on the effect size and ten on the population. Reversing that ratio would improve most sessions. Stating my assumptions rather than smuggling them in. Go to post

I had written a reply contradicting post #98 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

Where the group cannot agree, record the disagreement rather than resolving it by seniority. The recorded disagreement is more honest and more useful later.

I would treat the number as indicative rather than as a measurement.

1 like in reply to #98 18d
CN
c.niemelTL3Regular12 Jul 2026#103
t.kulkarni, post #31: LEADER is one of those subjects where the general answer and the answer for a specific case diverge, and the thread will go in circles until someone says which one is being asked for. Go to post

That is a cleaner way of putting what I was circling around.

6 likes in reply to #31 16d
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n.nakamuraTL214 Jul 2026#104

Reframing LEADER slightly, because I think the disagreement is about the question rather than the answer. If the question is "does it happen", yes. If it is "how often", nobody here knows.

15 likes 14d
ID
isotonic_driftTL116 Jul 2026#105
SO
s.okonkwoTL218 Jul 2026#106
l.lundgren, post #91: Understood, and I withdraw the assumption I opened with. Go to post

Reading order that works for these sessions: registry entry, methods, baseline table, primary result, then abstract last. Reading the abstract first anchors everything that follows.

2 likes in reply to #91 10d
CD
cohort_driftTL3Regular20 Jul 2026#107
VThorvaldsen, post #21: Where I part company with post #18, and it is a narrow parting. Careful with the language on LEADER. "Not detected" and "not present" are different findings and the first is a statement about the method. Go to post

Picking up post #104: that is the part I would want checked first.

The documentation on LEADER is better than this thread and I say that as someone who has posted in the thread.

9 likes in reply to #21 8d
RC
r.chukwuTL222 Jul 2026 · edited#108

On post #106 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Sessions on negative or null results are consistently the most instructive and the hardest to get anyone to attend.

Not a strong opinion, just a consistent one.

21 likes 6d
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s.rasmussenTL224 Jul 2026#109

LEADER has a well-known answer and a correct answer, and the interesting work is establishing that they are the same. Nobody has done that here yet.

0 likes 4d
FW
f.wojcikTL226 Jul 2026#110
steady_state, post #20: I have been on both sides of the LEADER argument in this category within eighteen months, which should tell you how strong the evidence for either side is. Go to post

Adding what did not work for me on LEADER, since the failures never get written up and they are half the useful information.

5 likes in reply to #20 2d
SM
s.mbekiTL228 Jul 2026#111

The baseline characteristics table is the single most useful page for the questions that get asked here, because it tells you who the result applies to.

That is the shape of it. The detail is where I would expect to be corrected.

8 likes 2h

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