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Evidence · Meta-analyses

Publication bias detection and its low power — does this still hold?

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Solved by s.perrin in post #5
Post #3 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one. The practical version of Publication bias detection is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached.

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RC
r.chukwuTL228 Nov 2025#1

The question in the title: Publication bias detection and its low power — does this still hold? I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it.

Collecting what is known about Publication bias detection in one place, because it is currently spread across a category, two tag pages and a thread that is hard to find.

This is a summary rather than new work, and I have attributed each part to where I found it.

10 likes 8mo
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GEldridgeTL3Regular10 Dec 2025#2

Posting my Publication bias detection numbers with the method attached so they can be discounted properly. Uncontrolled, unblinded, and collected by someone who wanted a particular answer.

0 likes 8mo
AK
a.krastevTL219 Dec 2025#3
r.chukwu, post #1: The question in the title: Publication bias detection and its low power — does this still hold? I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it. Collecting what is known about Publication bias detection in one place, because it is currently spread across a category, two tag pages and a thread that is hard to find.… Go to post

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

0 likes in reply to #1 7mo
DB
d.bramleyTL3Regular27 Dec 2025#4
a.krastev, post #3: Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified. Go to post

That is clearer than the version I had in my head. Thank you.

21 likes in reply to #3 7mo
SP
s.perrinTL2 Solution3 Jan 2026#5

Post #3 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

The practical version of Publication bias detection is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached.

9 likes 7mo
GC
glossary_checkTL2Member10 Jan 2026#6

Publication bias: what did not get published? Small studies with negative results are less likely to be published than large studies with positive results. A forest plot with only large studies on the positive end is a red flag for unpublished small negative studies.

Reading it back, the second half matters more than the first.

0 likes 7mo
AK
an.kirchnerTL216 Jan 2026 · edited#7

Two questions I would want answered before drawing anything from the Publication bias detection data above: how were the cases selected, and what happened to the ones that dropped out.

29 likes 6mo
GD
glossary_deskTL3Regular22 Jan 2026#8
an.kirchner, post #7: Two questions I would want answered before drawing anything from the Publication bias detection data above: how were the cases selected, and what happened to the ones that dropped out. Go to post

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

14 likes in reply to #7 6mo
CH
c.haddadTL228 Jan 2026#9

Where I would push back on the Publication bias detection consensus is the confidence, not the direction. The direction looks right. The confidence is borrowed.

14 likes 6mo
PN
plateau_notesTL2Regular3 Feb 2026#10
GEldridge, post #2: Posting my Publication bias detection numbers with the method attached so they can be discounted properly. Uncontrolled, unblinded, and collected by someone who wanted a particular answer. Go to post

Narrowing post #7, because the general version has more than one answer.

Small methodological point on Publication bias detection: repeating a measurement is cheap and resolves most of what is being argued about here at no cost to anyone.

5 likes in reply to #2 6mo
AS
a.sorensenTL29 Feb 2026 · edited#11
a.krastev, post #3: Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified. Go to post

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

I would be interested in a counterexample if anyone has one.

0 likes in reply to #3 6mo
SD
s.duarteTL215 Feb 2026#12
glossary_check, post #6: Publication bias: what did not get published? Small studies with negative results are less likely to be published than large studies with positive results. A forest plot with only large studies on the positive end is a red flag for unpublished small negative studies. Reading it back, the second half matters more than the first. Go to post

The version of Publication bias detection that circulates here is a simplification of a simplification. It is not wrong, but it has lost the conditions under which it holds, and those conditions are where the interesting cases live.

0 likes in reply to #6 5mo
NN
n.nakamuraTL220 Feb 2026#13

The arithmetic in post #12 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Agreed on Publication bias detection, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states.

4 likes 5mo
AS
a.salcedoTL325 Feb 2026#14
SB
s.beaulieuTL23 Mar 2026#15

Marking my uncertainty on Publication bias detection explicitly. I am confident about the direction, much less confident about the size, and not confident at all that it generalises past the case in the first post.

25 likes 5mo
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JFitzgibbonTL2Member8 Mar 2026#16
c.haddad, post #9: Where I would push back on the Publication bias detection consensus is the confidence, not the direction. The direction looks right. The confidence is borrowed. Go to post

Where I part company with post #15, and it is a narrow parting.

Reading the pooled figure without reading the inclusion criteria is the equivalent of quoting a trial without its population. Both are common and both are avoidable.

0 likes in reply to #9 5mo
TV
to.vargaTL213 Mar 2026#17

Adding the measurement that post #16 says would settle it.

The reason Publication bias detection keeps being re-asked is that the answer is conditional and people quote it without the condition. It is not that the answer is unknown.

1 like 5mo
GH
g.haalandTL3Regular18 Mar 2026#18

Taking Publication bias detection seriously for a moment rather than deflecting: the honest position is that the community has observations and no controlled comparison, and those two things support very different sentences.

7 likes 4mo
SO
s.okonkwoTL223 Mar 2026#19

Useful. I have added it to my own notes with the date on it.

18 likes 4mo
CD
cohort_driftTL3Regular28 Mar 2026 · edited#20
a.salcedo, post #14: Answering the question post #10 raises rather than the one it answers. Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random. Go to post

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

0 likes in reply to #14 4mo
VM
v.malinowskiTL22 Apr 2026#21
VS
vial_slopeTL3Regular7 Apr 2026#22

Post #20 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Publication bias detection has a well-known answer and a correct answer, and the interesting work is establishing that they are the same. Nobody has done that here yet.

3 likes 4mo
SD
s.demirTL212 Apr 2026#23

The documentation on Publication bias detection is better than this thread and I say that as someone who has posted in the thread.

0 likes 4mo
LP
l.parkinsonTL2Member16 Apr 2026#24

Seconded. It reads as careful rather than confident, which is the right register.

23 likes 3mo
PO
p.onwukaTL221 Apr 2026 · edited#25
s.duarte, post #12: The version of Publication bias detection that circulates here is a simplification of a simplification. It is not wrong, but it has lost the conditions under which it holds, and those conditions are where the interesting cases live. Go to post

I read post #23 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Protocol registration for a systematic review matters for the same reason it does for a trial. An unregistered review can select its inclusion criteria after seeing the results.

15 likes in reply to #12 3mo
HN
h.nicolaidesTL3Regular26 Apr 2026#26

Post #23 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

An observation about Publication bias detection that I cannot explain and am posting anyway, on the principle that unexplained observations are more useful public than private.

6 likes 3mo
KK
k.karlsenTL230 Apr 2026#27

My understanding of Publication bias detection is a few years old and may have been superseded. If it has been, I would genuinely like to know rather than keep repeating it.

0 likes 3mo
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NLoughranTL3Regular5 May 2026#28

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

I am aware this is the third time this month I have made this point.

31 likes 3mo
ZS
z.szaboTL29 May 2026#29
s.perrin, post #5: Post #3 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one. The practical version of Publication bias detection is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached. Go to post

Saving this. It is the version I will quote when the question comes round again.

22 likes in reply to #5 3mo

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