Posting this under the heading it deserves: Second pass at: Multiplicity when you track fifteen variables Everything below is what sits behind that.
Two things I would like separated before anyone answers on Multiplicity, because they get bundled and then argued about as one thing.
The first is descriptive: what has actually been observed, by whom, and how. The second is causal: why. I am asking about the first only.
I have three months of notes on Multiplicity and the honest summary is that the trend is real and the week-to-week numbers are noise. I nearly drew the opposite conclusion from the first fortnight.
Taking the opening post at face value and following it one step further.
Multiplicity and multiple comparisons: if you test many hypotheses, the chance of finding a false positive by random chance increases. That is why pre-specifying the primary hypothesis matters.
Noting that the question and the thing people usually mean by it are different.
| Topic | Participants | Replies | Views | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Regression to the mean in progress reports
On the subject in the title: Regression to the mean in progress reports Working notes rather than a conclusion. Something about regression does not reconcile and I would like a second pair of eyes before I…
|
+30 | 34 | 49k | 12mo |
|
[2026 update] Correlation in a self-tracked dataset: what it can support
Posting this under the heading it deserves: Correlation in a self-tracked dataset: what it can support Everything below is what sits behind that. Posting a small dataset on Correlation. It is mine, it is…
|
2 | 31k | 6h | |
|
What a confidence interval means, from scratch
What a confidence interval means, from scratch — that is the question, and I have not found it answered plainly anywhere I have looked. Asking about confidence interval directly, because I have read four…
|
2 | 2.6k | 2mo | |
|
Multiplicity when you track fifteen variables
Multiplicity when you track fifteen variables — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. Asking about multiplicity directly, because I have read four threads on it and each answered…
|
2 | 60k | 11mo | |
|
Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation — the long version
On the subject in the title: Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation — the long version Working notes rather than a conclusion. A narrow question about Measurement error in home…
|
+96 | 105 | 2k | 2mo |
| Topic | Participants | Replies | Views | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fixed versus detachable needles: the trade-offs
Posting this under the heading it deserves: Fixed versus detachable needles: the trade-offs Everything below is what sits behind that. I was wrong about fixed versus detachable needles in a thread last spring…
|
+117 | 121 | 7.3k | 18mo |
|
Micro-titration: a disputed topic, argued properly
Micro-titration: a disputed topic, argued properly Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Two things I would like separated before anyone answers on…
|
+99 | 110 | 61k | 2d |
|
Journal club: SUSTAIN 6 and its retinopathy signal — does this still hold?
The question in the title: Journal club: SUSTAIN 6 and its retinopathy signal — does this still hold? I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it. Reading SUSTAIN 6 ( N Engl J Med ,…
|
+60 | 66 | 12k | 16mo |
|
Titles that describe the question, not the situation — what changed since
Posting this under the heading it deserves: Titles that describe the question, not the situation — what changed since Everything below is what sits behind that. What changes if the standard account of Titles…
|
+29 | 33 | 29k | 10mo |
|
Revisiting: The arithmetic of an intermediate dose between two label steps
Revisiting: The arithmetic of an intermediate dose between two label steps Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. I have read the maintained page on this and I…
|
+41 | 45 | 808 | 2mo |