Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
Transit times by route, from a logged dataset Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did.
Posting a small dataset on transit times. It is mine, it is uncontrolled, and the method is stated so it can be discounted appropriately.
What I would like is not agreement but a second dataset collected by someone with no stake in mine. If one exists I would rather read it than argue for this one.
Where I have landed on transit times, having got it wrong once in public: the direction is clear, the magnitude is not, and anyone quoting a precise magnitude has borrowed it from somewhere that did not measure it.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
This is the sort of thing the wiki should carry and currently does not.
Adding the measurement that the opening post says would settle it.
A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.
This is the sort of thing that ought to be settled and apparently is not.
Two things can be true about transit times at once: the mechanism is plausible and the evidence for the size of the effect is thin. Most of the argument here is people defending the first against attacks on the second.
Picking up post #5: that is the part I would want checked first.
Customs outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions, and that the same route behaves differently in different months.
A partial answer, offered because a partial answer beats none.
The same route behaves differently in different months. A single good or bad experience is one sample from a distribution.
Marking my place. If it changes for me I will come back and say so.
Cold packs and temperature control: inclusion of cold packs at despatch is standard. Whether they maintain temperature through transit depends on journey duration and ambient temperature. Long journeys through warm climates put product at risk.
The disagreement above is smaller than it looks once the terms are fixed.
Following this. I have the same question and no better information than the first post.
Post #12 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.
Reporting rather than recommending, on transit times. What happened is above. Whether it should have is a different question and not one I am qualified to answer.
Post #14 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.
One more thing on transit times that took me far too long to see: the two figures people quote are not measuring the same quantity. Once you notice that, the apparent contradiction disappears.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
If that is already documented somewhere, ignore me and link it.
Answering the question post #16 raises rather than the one it answers.
Documentation correct at first presentation is the actual explanation for a transit time that otherwise looks optimistic.
Post #18 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
Everything in post #17 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
Tracking stops updating: tracking last updated days ago usually means the package is in transit and will not update until it reaches the next scanning point. No update for weeks means it might be stuck.
Not a conclusion. A place to stand while looking for one.
Packaging integrity on arrival: if a parcel arrives with compromised packaging, that is evidence of a handling problem in transit. The contents may or may not be compromised but you have reason to be cautious.
None of the above is medical advice and I am not qualified to give any.
The practical version of transit times is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached.
Building on post #25 rather than restating it.
Customs outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions, and that the same route behaves differently in different months.
The general case is well covered; this is the awkward specific one.
An update on my earlier transit times post: the pattern held for another six weeks and then stopped, which I did not predict and cannot explain.