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Clinical · Special populations

Athletes in weight-category sports: a different risk calculus

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Solved by sa.vogel in post #8
Building on post #7 rather than restating it. Athletes in weight-category sports is a question about a distribution, not about a value, and treating it as a value is what produces the confident wrong answers.

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orbitrap_olaTL3Mass spectrometrist21 Jun 2026#1

Athletes in weight-category sports: a different risk calculus — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.

Something about athletes in weight-category sports does not reconcile and I would like a second pair of eyes before I decide which half is wrong.

Two sources, both reputable, giving figures that cannot both be right unless they are measuring different quantities. My suspicion is that they are, and I cannot see how.

0 likes 1mo
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b.solbergTL223 Jun 2026#2

The most useful reply I ever got about athletes in weight-category sports was a request to state my units. It sounds like pedantry and it has saved me twice.

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m.coelhoTL225 Jun 2026#3

Extrapolating a point estimate to somebody well outside the enrolled range should be described as an extrapolation every time it is done.

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b.vestergaardTL226 Jun 2026#4

Post #3 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

The most useful contribution here is usually a citation to whichever published document comes closest, with a plain statement of how far it is from the question.

6 likes 1mo
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BGiordanoTL2Member27 Jun 2026#5

Summarising the athletes in weight-category sports thread so far, since it is long and the answer is buried: the first reply has the method, the fourth has the correction to it, and the rest is people agreeing at length.

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a.mwangiTL228 Jun 2026#6

Thank you for taking the time. That was more work than a reply usually is.

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cannula_driftTL3Regular29 Jun 2026 · edited#7

Post #3 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

Body weight at the extremes of the studied range affects exposure and the trials rarely reported enough to say by how much.

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sa.vogelTL2 Solution30 Jun 2026#8
b.solberg, post #2: The most useful reply I ever got about athletes in weight-category sports was a request to state my units. It sounds like pedantry and it has saved me twice. Go to post

Building on post #7 rather than restating it.

Athletes in weight-category sports is a question about a distribution, not about a value, and treating it as a value is what produces the confident wrong answers.

10 likes in reply to #2 28d
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e.iyerTL21 Jul 2026#9

On post #7 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Being outside the studied population does not mean a treatment is unsafe. It means the usual evidence is not available and the reasoning has to be explicit.

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ms_hollowayTL4Mass spectrometrist2 Jul 2026#10

Picking up post #7: that is the part I would want checked first.

A note on how athletes in weight-category sports gets discussed rather than on athletes in weight-category sports itself: the confident posts get the replies and the careful ones get ignored, and the careful ones have been right more often.

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vial_tableTL2Member3 Jul 2026#11

Athletes in weight-category sports: I have looked for the primary source twice and failed twice. Either it does not exist or it is somewhere I do not know to look, and I would like to know which.

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d.vestergaardTL24 Jul 2026#12

Genetic and ancestry-related differences in response are asked about regularly and the published evidence is thin enough that the honest answer is short.

The short version is the first sentence; the rest is why.

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integrator_logTL35 Jul 2026#13
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s.salgadoTL25 Jul 2026 · edited#14

That reframing is the whole thing. The facts I already had.

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sterile_fileTL3Regular6 Jul 2026#15

The practical version of athletes in weight-category sports is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached.

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l.cabreraTL27 Jul 2026#16

I would keep athletes in weight-category sports and the decision it usually gets used for separate in this thread. They are related and they are not the same question, and merging them is why the last one went badly.

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FairweatherTL2Member8 Jul 2026#17
a.mwangi, post #6: Thank you for taking the time. That was more work than a reply usually is. Go to post

Nothing in this subcategory is medical advice and the questions asked here are precisely the ones that need an individual assessment.

I would want to see it done twice before believing it once.

1 like in reply to #6 20d
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ka.batistaTL29 Jul 2026#18

On post #15 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Athletes and people in substantial training loads are effectively unstudied, and the questions asked here about performance have no trial evidence behind them at all.

A partial answer, offered because a partial answer beats none.

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v.milanoviTL3Regular9 Jul 2026#19

Post #16 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

Where I would push back on the athletes in weight-category sports consensus is the confidence, not the direction. The direction looks right. The confidence is borrowed.

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p.friskTL210 Jul 2026#20

Older adults: sarcopenia risk is higher, polypharmacy is common, and the clinical trials did not enroll many people over 75. Extrapolating to very old people is extrapolating beyond the data.

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e.lehtinenTL211 Jul 2026#21

A methods point on athletes in weight-category sports rather than a substantive one: if the comparison is not like for like, the difference you are measuring is the difference in method.

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h.ferrariTL212 Jul 2026#22

Agreed on athletes in weight-category sports, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states.

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r.friskTL213 Jul 2026#23

Where I part company with post #19, and it is a narrow parting.

Post-surgical populations, particularly after procedures affecting the gastrointestinal tract, interact with a delayed-emptying mechanism in ways that need specialist input.

A single observation, in a thread that deserves better than single observations.

1 like 15d
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k.chukwuTL213 Jul 2026#24
p.frisk, post #20: Older adults: sarcopenia risk is higher, polypharmacy is common, and the clinical trials did not enroll many people over 75. Extrapolating to very old people is extrapolating beyond the data. Go to post

No disagreement from me. Posting only so the question does not look ignored.

0 likes in reply to #20 15d
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f.fenwickTL3Regular14 Jul 2026#25

Everything in post #23 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Taking athletes in weight-category sports seriously for a moment rather than deflecting: the honest position is that the community has observations and no controlled comparison, and those two things support very different sentences.

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k.kimaniTL215 Jul 2026#26

The reason athletes in weight-category sports keeps being re-asked is that the answer is conditional and people quote it without the condition. It is not that the answer is unknown.

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KForsbergTL2Member16 Jul 2026 · edited#27
f.fenwick, post #25: Everything in post #23 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have. Taking athletes in weight-category sports seriously for a moment rather than deflecting: the honest position is that the community has observations and no controlled comparison, and those two things support very different sentences. Go to post

Dedicated trials in under-studied populations are the only real remedy and several are ongoing, which is worth saying rather than speculating.

The reasoning is more useful than the number, which is why I have shown it.

0 likes in reply to #25 12d
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s.hartmannTL216 Jul 2026#28
p.frisk, post #20: Older adults: sarcopenia risk is higher, polypharmacy is common, and the clinical trials did not enroll many people over 75. Extrapolating to very old people is extrapolating beyond the data. Go to post

Building on post #27 rather than restating it.

Nothing in this subcategory is medical advice and the questions asked here are precisely the ones that need an individual assessment.

That is what the documentation says. What happens in practice is usually close.

0 likes in reply to #20 12d
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LundqvistTL2Member17 Jul 2026#29

On post #27 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Extrapolating a point estimate to somebody well outside the enrolled range should be described as an extrapolation every time it is done.

I checked the source rather than the summary, and they differ.

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j.solbergTL218 Jul 2026 · edited#30

Picking up post #27: that is the part I would want checked first.

My experience of athletes in weight-category sports contradicts the reply above. I am posting it as a data point rather than as a refutation, because one person's experience is exactly that.

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