Athletes in weight-category sports: a different risk calculus
Building on post #7 rather than restating it.
Athletes in weight-category sports is a question about a distribution, not about a value, and treating it as a value is what produces the confident wrong answers.
Genetic and ancestry-related differences in response are asked about regularly and the published evidence is thin enough that the honest answer is short.
The short version is the first sentence; the rest is why.
Post #16 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.
Where I would push back on the athletes in weight-category sports consensus is the confidence, not the direction. The direction looks right. The confidence is borrowed.
A methods point on athletes in weight-category sports rather than a substantive one: if the comparison is not like for like, the difference you are measuring is the difference in method.
Post #36 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.
Body weight at the extremes of the studied range affects exposure and the trials rarely reported enough to say by how much.
That holds for the case as described. Change the assumptions and it may not.
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