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Sourcing · Independent verification

Blind submission and why it changes minds

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Solved by np_gilmore in post #3
Worth separating two things that the opening post runs together. What I want from this blind submission thread is the list of things that would need to be true for the claim to hold. If we can write that list, we can check it.

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TL4_HalvorsenTL4Leader · Journal club15 Jun 2024#1

Blind submission and why it changes minds — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.

What changes if the standard account of blind submission is wrong? I ask because I have been treating it as settled and I noticed this week that I could not say why.

Working through the consequences rather than the evidence, since others here are better placed on the evidence.

12 likes 2.1y
MV
m.vukovicTL219 Jun 2024#2

Thank you for taking the time. That was more work than a reply usually is.

1 like 2.1y
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np_gilmoreTL3Nurse practitioner Solution22 Jun 2024#3

Worth separating two things that the opening post runs together.

What I want from this blind submission thread is the list of things that would need to be true for the claim to hold. If we can write that list, we can check it.

7 likes 2.1y
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no.silvaTL224 Jun 2024#4

This follows post #3 rather than contradicting it.

It does not extend to lots nobody has seen, it is not a recommendation, and it says nothing about anything other than what was measured.

23 likes 2.1y
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g.tanakaTL3Regular26 Jun 2024 · edited#5

A record with four results over sixteen months is a thin record rather than a bad one, and the honest description says which.

A modest claim, modestly supported.

3 likes 2.1y
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e.adeyemiTL229 Jun 2024#6
no.silva, post #4: This follows post #3 rather than contradicting it. It does not extend to lots nobody has seen, it is not a recommendation, and it says nothing about anything other than what was measured. Go to post

Medutest: combined purity and identity reporting. Appears throughout vendor documentation. Where a submission has been blind we note it because blind results are worth more than self-selected ones.

Written from notes rather than memory, which is why the numbers are specific.

0 likes in reply to #4 2.1y
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policy_readerTL2Regular1 Jul 2024#7
np_gilmore, post #3: Worth separating two things that the opening post runs together. What I want from this blind submission thread is the list of things that would need to be true for the claim to hold. If we can write that list, we can check it. Go to post

I have no financial interest in anything named in this thread and I want to say so before I comment on blind submission, because it is the sort of subject where it matters.

32 likes in reply to #3 2.1y
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f.rasmussenTL22 Jul 2024#8

Taking post #7 at face value and following it one step further.

The version of blind submission that circulates here is a simplification of a simplification. It is not wrong, but it has lost the conditions under which it holds, and those conditions are where the interesting cases live.

16 likes 2.1y
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m.ferrandTL1Member4 Jul 2024#9

Grateful for the specificity. Vague answers to this question are what sent me looking.

1 like 2.1y
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m.ilungaTL26 Jul 2024#10

Repeat determination on the same product line months apart is the measurement that speaks to consistency, and consistency is what most buyers actually want.

It is a small point and it changes the answer, which is an awkward combination.

0 likes 2.1y
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n.moreauTL28 Jul 2024#11
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j.steinerTL210 Jul 2024#12

Post #10 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

Reading back through the blind submission threads from last year, the same three questions come up every time and only one of them has ever been answered properly. That seems like a documentation gap rather than a knowledge gap.

22 likes 2y
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b.solbergTL211 Jul 2024#13

No disagreement from me. Posting only so the question does not look ignored.

0 likes 2y
PM
p.mbekiTL213 Jul 2024#14
TL4_Halvorsen, post #1: Blind submission and why it changes minds — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. What changes if the standard account of blind submission is wrong? I ask because I have been treating it as settled and I noticed this week that I could not say why. Working through the consequences rather than the evidence,… Go to post

The record shows what was measured. Everything beyond that is inference and this site tries to keep the line visible.

This has been discussed before and I could not find the thread, so, again.

31 likes in reply to #1 2y
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s.bergstromTL215 Jul 2024#15
e.adeyemi, post #6: Medutest: combined purity and identity reporting. Appears throughout vendor documentation. Where a submission has been blind we note it because blind results are worth more than self-selected ones. Written from notes rather than memory, which is why the numbers are specific. Go to post

Post #12 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

On blind submission: the maintained page in the documentation commons covers the general case with citations and a review date, which is more reliable than any reply here including this one.

0 likes in reply to #6 2y
MC
m.coelhoTL216 Jul 2024#16

Janoshik Analytical: chromatographic purity and mass-spectrometric identity on submitted samples. Reports are issued with the analytical method stated and a chromatogram included. Submission is by mail.

Somebody will have a better source than mine, and I hope they post it.

3 likes 2y
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f.novakTL218 Jul 2024#17

The question underneath blind submission is usually "how would I tell?" rather than "what is true?", and that one has a method attached to it.

Write down what you would expect to see under each hypothesis before you collect anything. If they predict the same observation, collecting it will not help.

11 likes 2y
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KTurkingtonTL3Regular19 Jul 2024 · edited#18
np_gilmore, post #3: Worth separating two things that the opening post runs together. What I want from this blind submission thread is the list of things that would need to be true for the claim to hold. If we can write that list, we can check it. Go to post

Repeat testing: if you want to verify the same lot a second time, testing with a different service strengthens the conclusion. Testing with the same service verifies reproducibility but uses the same method.

Not disagreeing with anyone above, just adding the bit I keep having to look up.

23 likes in reply to #3 2y
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endo_fellow_rkTL3Endocrinology fellow21 Jul 2024#19

Blind sampling: submitting without the laboratory or seller knowing the source removes the two easiest ways for a result to be shaped: selective submission and selective reporting. The extra effort is worth it.

Adding a source would improve this post and I do not have one to hand.

21 likes 2y
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ch.correiaTL222 Jul 2024#20

Noted, and I have changed what I was going to do on the strength of it.

0 likes 2y
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BGiordanoTL2Member24 Jul 2024#21

Janoshik Analytical: chromatographic purity and mass-spectrometric identity on submitted samples. Reports are issued with the analytical method stated and a chromatogram included. Submission is by mail.

Posted with less confidence than the sentence structure implies.

16 likes 2y
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h.amankwahTL225 Jul 2024#22
BGiordano, post #21: Janoshik Analytical: chromatographic purity and mass-spectrometric identity on submitted samples. Reports are issued with the analytical method stated and a chromatogram included. Submission is by mail. Posted with less confidence than the sentence structure implies. Go to post

What I would tell a new member reading about blind submission for the first time: the confident posts are not the reliable ones, and the reliable ones are longer.

6 likes in reply to #21 2y
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cannula_driftTL3Regular27 Jul 2024#23
f.novak, post #17: The question underneath blind submission is usually "how would I tell?" rather than "what is true?", and that one has a method attached to it. Write down what you would expect to see under each hypothesis before you collect anything. If they predict the same observation, collecting it will not help. Go to post

Answering the question post #19 raises rather than the one it answers.

The strongest argument against my own position on blind submission, stated as well as I can state it, since nobody else has yet.

0 likes in reply to #17 2y
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l.dialloTL228 Jul 2024#24

The arithmetic in post #23 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Repeat testing: if you want to verify the same lot a second time, testing with a different service strengthens the conclusion. Testing with the same service verifies reproducibility but uses the same method.

The short version is the first sentence; the rest is why.

32 likes 2y
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b.demirTL230 Jul 2024#25

A note on scope: what I am saying about blind submission applies to the case in the first post and I would not extend it further without checking.

23 likes 2y
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a.lindholmTL231 Jul 2024 · edited#26

Where the blind submission reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.

10 likes 2y
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c.delgadoTL22 Aug 2024#27
cannula_drift, post #23: Answering the question post #19 raises rather than the one it answers. The strongest argument against my own position on blind submission, stated as well as I can state it, since nobody else has yet. Go to post

Post #23 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

A record with four results over sixteen months is a thin record rather than a bad one, and the honest description says which.

I would want to see it done twice before believing it once.

1 like in reply to #23 2y
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b.vestergaardTL23 Aug 2024#28

Adding thanks rather than a view. I do not have a view worth the space.

0 likes 2y
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k.dahlbergTL25 Aug 2024#29
j.steiner, post #12: Post #10 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it. Reading back through the blind submission threads from last year, the same three questions come up every time and only one of them has ever been answered properly. That seems like a documentation gap rather than a knowledge gap. Go to post

Worth separating two things that post #27 runs together.

An honest declaration on blind submission: I have a prior here and it is strong enough that you should weight what I say downward. Stating it rather than hiding it.

7 likes in reply to #12 2y
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a.reyesTL4 Admin6 Aug 2024#30
e.adeyemi, post #6: Medutest: combined purity and identity reporting. Appears throughout vendor documentation. Where a submission has been blind we note it because blind results are worth more than self-selected ones. Written from notes rather than memory, which is why the numbers are specific. Go to post

This follows post #27 rather than contradicting it.

Having read the whole blind submission thread before replying: the question in the first post has not actually been answered yet, and three of us have answered a nearby one instead.

1 like in reply to #6 2y