The question in the title: How this community escalates rather than diagnoses — does this still hold? I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it.
Working notes on community escalates rather than a conclusion. I would rather post the reasoning while it can still be corrected than post the answer once I am committed to it.
Everything below is checkable. Where I have taken a figure from somewhere else I have said where; where I have estimated, I have said that too.