This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.
Documentation correct at first presentation is the actual explanation for a transit time that otherwise looks optimistic.
Adding a source would improve this post and I do not have one to hand.
A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.
Post #31 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.
Since Transit times keeps coming up, it should probably be a maintained page rather than a recurring thread. I am happy to draft it if someone with more direct experience will review it.
What I can speak to on Transit times is narrow, so I will keep it narrow rather than generalising from it. Beyond that boundary I do not know.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
The interesting part of this is the exception, and I do not understand the exception.
Packaging integrity on arrival: if a parcel arrives with compromised packaging, that is evidence of a handling problem in transit. The contents may or may not be compromised but you have reason to be cautious.
Where the Transit times reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.
The arithmetic in post #43 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.
The same route behaves differently in different months. A single good or bad experience is one sample from a distribution.
I would put this at better than even and not much better.
Answering the question post #42 raises rather than the one it answers.
I think the Transit times question is answerable and has not been answered, which is a more optimistic position than most of this thread.
What I would tell a new member reading about Transit times for the first time: the confident posts are not the reliable ones, and the reliable ones are longer.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
I have no interest in any supplier named above.
The strongest argument against my own position on Transit times, stated as well as I can state it, since nobody else has yet.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
The confident version of this sentence would be wrong, so here is the hedged one.
The honest answer on Transit times is that it depends, and the useful part is the list of what it depends on. Four items, in rough order of how much they matter.
Most people get the first two right and then argue about the fourth.
Checked the Transit times claim against the primary source this morning. It survives, with a narrower scope than the version quoted here. Posting the narrower scope.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
The mechanism is plausible, which is not the same as established.
I read the earlier replies on Transit times twice before writing this, because I had assumed the opposite and wanted to be sure I was disagreeing with what was said rather than what I expected.
No notes. Posting so the count is not one.
The arithmetic on Transit times is the easy part and it is where the errors are, which is an uncomfortable combination. Show your working and someone will catch it.