Transit times by route, from a logged dataset — the long version

Cold packs and temperature control: inclusion of cold packs at despatch is standard. Whether they maintain temperature through transit depends on journey duration and ambient temperature. Long journeys through warm climates put product at risk.

The arithmetic in post #13 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Careful with the language on Transit times. "Not detected" and "not present" are different findings and the first is a statement about the method.

That is consistent with mine, for whatever one more account is worth.

That is a fair summary of where the discussion has got to.

The arithmetic in post #43 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

The same route behaves differently in different months. A single good or bad experience is one sample from a distribution.

I would put this at better than even and not much better.

Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.

The confident version of this sentence would be wrong, so here is the hedged one.

Post #67 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

I would put a moderate confidence on that and no more.

Customs outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions, and that the same route behaves differently in different months.

The arithmetic in post #84 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Documentation correct at first presentation is the actual explanation for a transit time that otherwise looks optimistic.