This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.
Picking up post #58: that is the part I would want checked first.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
I have deliberately not rounded that, because the rounding is where the argument starts.
On post #60 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.
Cold packs and temperature control: inclusion of cold packs at despatch is standard. Whether they maintain temperature through transit depends on journey duration and ambient temperature. Long journeys through warm climates put product at risk.
Written from notes rather than memory, which is why the numbers are specific.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
Tracking stops updating: tracking last updated days ago usually means the package is in transit and will not update until it reaches the next scanning point. No update for weeks means it might be stuck.
That is a description of practice, not a recommendation of it.
Worth separating two things that post #65 runs together.
Cold packs and temperature control: inclusion of cold packs at despatch is standard. Whether they maintain temperature through transit depends on journey duration and ambient temperature. Long journeys through warm climates put product at risk.
It is one reading of the data and not the only reasonable one.
Post #66 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.
Something worth flagging about Transit times: the strongest-sounding claims in this thread are the ones with no source attached, which is the usual pattern and not a coincidence.
Adding thanks rather than a view. I do not have a view worth the space.
Post #67 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
I would put a moderate confidence on that and no more.
Reading rather than answering, but this is the post I would point somebody at.
Packaging integrity on arrival: if a parcel arrives with compromised packaging, that is evidence of a handling problem in transit. The contents may or may not be compromised but you have reason to be cautious.
Where I would look next, rather than where I would stop.
Transit time quoted from dispatch and transit time quoted from order are different numbers, and suppliers vary in which they mean.
Post #71 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.
The version of Transit times that circulates here is a simplification of a simplification. It is not wrong, but it has lost the conditions under which it holds, and those conditions are where the interesting cases live.
Agreed on Transit times, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states.
Saving this. It is the version I will quote when the question comes round again.
Customs outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions, and that the same route behaves differently in different months.
Building on post #80 rather than restating it.
Practical note on Transit times: write down what you expect before you look. The number of times I have found what I went looking for is higher than chance would allow.
Source for the Transit times figure, since it was asked for. It is in the discussion rather than the abstract, which is why the version circulating is stronger than the paper is.
Reading the surrounding paragraph is worth the two minutes. The authors are more careful than their summarisers.
Everything in post #83 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
Two things can be true about Transit times at once: the mechanism is plausible and the evidence for the size of the effect is thin. Most of the argument here is people defending the first against attacks on the second.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
It is the sort of thing that seems obvious in retrospect and was not at the time.
The arithmetic in post #84 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.
Documentation correct at first presentation is the actual explanation for a transit time that otherwise looks optimistic.
Answering the question post #86 raises rather than the one it answers.
A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.
I have changed my mind on this once already, so take it as current rather than settled.
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