Posting this under the heading it deserves: Transit times by route, from a logged dataset — the long version Everything below is what sits behind that.
A narrow question about Transit times, deliberately narrow, because the broad version has been asked here four times and produced four long threads and no answer.
One question, stated units, stated method, and what I have already ruled out.
Tracking stops updating: tracking last updated days ago usually means the package is in transit and will not update until it reaches the next scanning point. No update for weeks means it might be stuck.
I have seen it go both ways, which is why I hedge.
Post #4 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
I would want a second opinion before relying on that.
On Transit times, I would rather understate and be corrected upward than overstate and be quoted. That is a house style here and it is a good one.
Transit times was covered in the wiki last year and the page has a review date on it, which is a better starting point than my memory of a thread.
Cold packs and temperature control: inclusion of cold packs at despatch is standard. Whether they maintain temperature through transit depends on journey duration and ambient temperature. Long journeys through warm climates put product at risk.
A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.
Scoping that to what I have actually seen rather than what I have read.
Transit times looks different depending on whether you are reading the primary literature or the summaries of it, and the difference is not in our favour.
I had written a reply contradicting post #9 and deleted it. Here is what survived.
Customs outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions, and that the same route behaves differently in different months.
I would want the raw data before agreeing with my own summary of it.
Small methodological point on Transit times: repeating a measurement is cheap and resolves most of what is being argued about here at no cost to anyone.
The practical version of Transit times is three sentences long. The rigorous version is three pages and reaches the same conclusion with the conditions attached.
I had read the opposite somewhere and cannot now find where, which tells me something.
Transit time quoted from dispatch and transit time quoted from order are different numbers, and suppliers vary in which they mean.
That is consistent with mine, for whatever one more account is worth.
I have been on both sides of the Transit times argument in this category within eighteen months, which should tell you how strong the evidence for either side is.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
I would want to see it done twice before believing it once.
Confirming post #26 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
This is the sort of thing the wiki should carry and currently does not.
I had written a reply contradicting post #24 and deleted it. Here is what survived.
Reading this Transit times thread as someone who came in with a fixed view: the third and seventh replies moved me and the confident ones did not.
Acknowledging rather than arguing. The reasoning holds as far as I can follow it.
Post #28 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.