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Evidence · Preprints · continued

When a preprint is the best available evidence and we say so posts 121–150

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1 · go to the accepted answer.

CG
c.grimaldiTL231 Aug 2025#121

Post #119 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

Building anything durable on a preprint means committing to rebuild it. That is a reasonable trade for a fast-moving question and it should be an explicit one.

13 likes 11mo
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c.cardosoTL231 Aug 2025 · edited#122
a.frisk, post #51: I read post #49 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite. What changes between preprint and publication: authors respond to reviewer comments, re-analyse data, correct errors found in peer review, and sometimes report different results from updated analyses. The published version is not the same as the preprint. Go to post

Building on post #119 rather than restating it.

Where numbers change between preprint and published version, the changes are not random. They tend toward a smaller effect and a more carefully hedged claim.

4 likes in reply to #51 11mo
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m.lehtinenTL231 Aug 2025#123

Grateful for the specificity. Vague answers to this question are what sent me looking.

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n.nybergTL21 Sep 2025#124

Sample size and pre-registration are checkable in a preprint exactly as in a paper, and they carry the same weight.

I have no interest in any supplier named above.

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c.lundgrenTL21 Sep 2025#125

Post #124 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

Where a preprint contradicts a published trial, the prior should favour the trial. Where it extends one, the preprint can be genuinely useful.

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h.eriksenTL21 Sep 2025#126
d.bakker, post #39: Version numbers on a preprint server matter. Citing version one of something now on version four is citing a document that has been superseded by its own authors. Posting it because the silence on this was starting to look like agreement. Go to post

Version numbers on a preprint server matter. Citing version one of something now on version four is citing a document that has been superseded by its own authors.

The uncertainty is in the assumption, not in the calculation.

2 likes in reply to #39 11mo
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z.laurentTL21 Sep 2025#127

Nobody has said the unglamorous part of preprint yet, so: most of the variation is explained by things that are boring to write about and easy to check.

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d.yilmazTL22 Sep 2025#128

The honest position on most preprints in this field is that they are interesting and provisional, and that saying both is not fence-sitting.

Old habit: I write down the expected answer before I calculate it.

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a.westergaardTL3Regular2 Sep 2025#129

Worth separating preprint as a question about the compound from preprint as a question about the documentation. They get answered by different people and only one of them is answerable here.

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c.falkTL22 Sep 2025#130

Sensible. I would want the same detail before I acted on it either.

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b.teixeiraTL22 Sep 2025#131

This follows post #129 rather than contradicting it.

Screening on a preprint server is minimal and is not review. It filters obvious problems and nothing more, which is what it is designed to do.

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DOdendaalTL3Regular3 Sep 2025#132

Worth separating two things that post #128 runs together.

Where a preprint's numbers are the basis of a claim being repeated here, someone should check whether the published version exists yet. That check is nearly always overdue.

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n.zielinskiTL23 Sep 2025 · edited#133
integrator_trace, post #111: Building on post #108 rather than restating it. Peer review catches some things reliably — missing methods, unsupported conclusions, statistical mistakes of the obvious kind — and misses others routinely. Knowing which is which makes preprint reading easier. I have deliberately not rounded that, because the rounding is where the… Go to post

The arithmetic on preprint is the easy part and it is where the errors are, which is an uncomfortable combination. Show your working and someone will catch it.

2 likes in reply to #111 11mo
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MJayawardenaTL3Regular3 Sep 2025#134

Peer review catches some things reliably — missing methods, unsupported conclusions, statistical mistakes of the obvious kind — and misses others routinely. Knowing which is which makes preprint reading easier.

The reasoning is more useful than the number, which is why I have shown it.

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ER
e.roosTL23 Sep 2025#135

Nothing to add on the substance. Thank you for taking the question at face value.

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s.grahameTL2Member3 Sep 2025#136

Post #132 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

Always label it as a preprint in any discussion. A preprint is not a published trial and it is not settled knowledge. Use it for hypothesis generation and for understanding emerging evidence, not for drawing definitive conclusions.

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r.ilungaTL24 Sep 2025#137
d.yilmaz, post #128: The honest position on most preprints in this field is that they are interesting and provisional, and that saying both is not fence-sitting. Old habit: I write down the expected answer before I calculate it. Go to post

Post #134 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Server repositories: medRxiv for medicine, bioRxiv for biology. Preprints on these servers are time-stamped and have DOIs even if they are later published elsewhere. Citing the preprint with its DOI is appropriate while noting it is unpublished.

5 likes in reply to #128 11mo
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e.dalgleishTL3Regular4 Sep 2025#138

The bit of preprint that nobody enjoys is that the answer changes depending on what you are trying to decide with it. Say what the decision is and the thread will converge.

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p.dialloTL24 Sep 2025#139

If you cite a preprint in a maintained document here, the convention is to label it in the sentence and to note the check date. The document review will catch the update.

I keep a log of this specifically because memory is unreliable about it.

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BirkelandTL3Regular4 Sep 2025#140

Preprint came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction.

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r.lundgrenTL25 Sep 2025#141

Coming back to post #137, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Reading a preprint properly means doing some of the reviewer's job: methods first, then whether the analysis matches the plan, then the conclusion.

I would call that likely rather than established.

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q.zhao_qaTL3Quality assurance5 Sep 2025#142

Post #141 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

A preprint with the data and code attached is frequently more checkable than a published paper without them. Reviewed and reproducible are different properties.

I have seen it go both ways, which is why I hedge.

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z.cardosoTL25 Sep 2025#143
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d.moreauTL2Regular5 Sep 2025#144
e.kimani, post #106: Adding thanks rather than a view. I do not have a view worth the space. Go to post

The documentation on preprint is better than this thread and I say that as someone who has posted in the thread.

1 like in reply to #106 11mo
BD
b.dumitruTL26 Sep 2025#145

That reframing is the whole thing. The facts I already had.

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electrolyte_notesTL2Regular6 Sep 2025#146

Check whether it was later published: searching for the preprint's first author and keywords in PubMed might find a published version. The published version is the stronger citation if it exists.

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v.bruunTL26 Sep 2025 · edited#147

How to cite a preprint: author last name, first initial, et al. Title. Server name [preprint]. Posted date. Doi. Include the server name and note that it is a preprint.

Not a strong opinion, just a consistent one.

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nl_translatorTL2Translator · NL6 Sep 2025#148
r.erdogan, post #94: Say it is a preprint in the first line rather than the last. Everything downstream depends on that status and readers arriving from search will not scroll for it. Go to post

This follows post #146 rather than contradicting it.

Say it is a preprint in the first line rather than the last. Everything downstream depends on that status and readers arriving from search will not scroll for it.

Worth saying I have only my own numbers here, and n is small.

0 likes in reply to #94 11mo
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c.ostergaardTL26 Sep 2025#149
t.duarte, post #92: The arithmetic in post #89 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check. Two things can be true about preprint at once: the mechanism is plausible and the evidence for the size of the effect is thin. Most of the argument here is people defending the first against attacks on the second. Go to post

Second-hand on preprint, so weight it accordingly — someone whose method I trust told me this and I have not verified it myself.

16 likes in reply to #92 11mo
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hana.satoTL4 Moderator7 Sep 2025#150

Offering a way to settle preprint rather than another opinion about it. Two measurements, taken the same way, a fortnight apart. If the difference is within the noise, the question was not answerable at this precision.

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