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Evidence · Meta-analyses · continued

Random versus fixed effects: choosing rather than defaulting — a second dataset posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

KR
k.radichTL26 Feb 2025#61
i.lehtinen, post #30: Answering the question post #26 raises rather than the one it answers. Summarising the Random versus fixed effects thread so far, since it is long and the answer is buried: the first reply has the method, the fourth has the correction to it, and the rest is people agreeing at length. Go to post

Clear enough that I do not think I have a follow-up, which is unusual.

1 like in reply to #30 18mo
BO
b.oseiTL26 Feb 2025 · edited#62
m.adebayo, post #45: Adding the measurement that post #42 says would settle it. Where the pooled result and the largest single trial disagree, that disagreement is the interesting thing rather than an inconvenience to be smoothed. If this contradicts something upthread, the upthread version may well be the better one. Go to post

Post #58 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Random versus fixed effects came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction.

6 likes in reply to #45 18mo
AR
a.reyesTL4 Admin6 Feb 2025#63

Checked the Random versus fixed effects claim against the primary source this morning. It survives, with a narrower scope than the version quoted here. Posting the narrower scope.

16 likes 18mo
KD
k.dahlbergTL26 Feb 2025#64

Quality assessment of included trials should change the analysis rather than sit beside it. A sensitivity analysis excluding the weakest studies is the minimum.

32 likes 18mo
OB
owen.bradyTL4 Moderator6 Feb 2025#65

My position on Random versus fixed effects is current rather than settled. I have revised it once already and I expect to again, so treat it accordingly.

3 likes 18mo
NS
n.silvaTL26 Feb 2025#66
s.vanhecke, post #41: Adding a note of thanks rather than an opinion. I did not know most of that. Go to post

On post #62 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

The arithmetic on Random versus fixed effects is the easy part and it is where the errors are, which is an uncomfortable combination. Show your working and someone will catch it.

10 likes in reply to #41 18mo
MH
ms_hollowayTL4Mass spectrometrist7 Feb 2025#67

The I-squared statistic describes the proportion of variability not attributable to chance and is frequently read as a threshold. It is a description rather than a test.

I would want the raw data before agreeing with my own summary of it.

23 likes 18mo
EI
e.iyerTL27 Feb 2025#68

Fixed-effect and random-effects models answer different questions. The first assumes one true effect; the second assumes a distribution of them. Choosing between them is an assumption, not a technicality.

0 likes 18mo
DV
dr.villanuevaTL3Physician7 Feb 2025 · edited#69
gradient_file, post #20: This is the sort of exchange that makes the archive worth searching. Go to post

Second-hand on Random versus fixed effects, so weight it accordingly — someone whose method I trust told me this and I have not verified it myself.

0 likes in reply to #20 18mo
SG
s.grimaldiTL27 Feb 2025#70

Where the pooled result and the largest single trial disagree, that disagreement is the interesting thing rather than an inconvenience to be smoothed.

1 like 18mo
JR
j.rasmussenTL2Regular7 Feb 2025 · edited#71

On post #69 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

That is the honest state of it as of this week.

0 likes 18mo
IB
i.balogunTL27 Feb 2025#72

Picking up post #69: that is the part I would want checked first.

Worth separating Random versus fixed effects as a question about the compound from Random versus fixed effects as a question about the documentation. They get answered by different people and only one of them is answerable here.

30 likes 18mo
RM
r.mcalisterTL3Regular8 Feb 2025#73

Individual participant data pooling is a much stronger design than aggregate pooling and is rare because it requires cooperation rather than a search.

15 likes 18mo
CC
c.chowdhuryTL28 Feb 2025#74
j.vandermolen, post #2: Answering the question the opening post raises rather than the one it answers. Fixed-effect and random-effects models answer different questions. The first assumes one true effect; the second assumes a distribution of them. Choosing between them is an assumption, not a technicality. Go to post

Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of things that should not have been averaged.

5 likes in reply to #2 18mo
CR
crossover_reviewTL3Regular8 Feb 2025#75
taper_table, post #44: Coming back to post #42, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer. Random versus fixed effects is a good example of a question where the honest answer is boring and the interesting answers are unsupported. I would go with boring. Go to post

Adding the boring version of Random versus fixed effects, because the interesting version keeps getting posted and the boring one is usually right.

Check the ordinary explanations, in order, and stop when one of them accounts for what you are seeing. Most of the time the second one does.

1 like in reply to #44 18mo
JS
j.sandvikTL28 Feb 2025#76

Adding the measurement that post #73 says would settle it.

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

A single observation, in a thread that deserves better than single observations.

0 likes 18mo
AT
a.thorneTL2Wiki editor8 Feb 2025#77

Where I have landed on Random versus fixed effects, having got it wrong once in public: the direction is clear, the magnitude is not, and anyone quoting a precise magnitude has borrowed it from somewhere that did not measure it.

21 likes 18mo
HF
h.friskTL28 Feb 2025#78
j.rasmussen, post #71: On post #69 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification. Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified. That is the honest state of it as of this week. Go to post

Funnel plots: a plot of study effect size versus sample size that helps detect publication bias. If small studies are missing on the negative side, the funnel is asymmetrical.

9 likes in reply to #71 18mo
I
IRenaudinTL2Member9 Feb 2025#79
b.teixeira, post #38: Adding the measurement that post #37 says would settle it. Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if… Go to post

Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if heterogeneity is high.

31 likes in reply to #38 18mo
SC
s.chowdhuryTL39 Feb 2025#80
HM
h.mbekiTL29 Feb 2025 · edited#81
n.petrov, post #50: Post #48 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction. Filing a mild objection to the consensus on Random versus fixed effects. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Go to post

Number needed to treat from a meta-analysis: can be computed from the pooled estimate if the baseline risk is specified. More interpretable than pooled relative effects.

0 likes in reply to #50 18mo
KR
k.radichTL29 Feb 2025#82

Coming back to post #81, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

High heterogeneity is the finding rather than a nuisance to be minimised. If the effect genuinely differs across settings, an average of those settings is an average of things that should not have been averaged.

That is all I can say without guessing.

0 likes 18mo
MC
m.coelhoTL29 Feb 2025#83

This follows post #82 rather than contradicting it.

I think the Random versus fixed effects question is answerable and has not been answered, which is a more optimistic position than most of this thread.

9 likes 18mo
BS
b.solbergTL29 Feb 2025#84

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

Adding this to the thread rather than to the wiki, because I am not confident enough for the wiki.

20 likes 18mo
AV
ai.vukovicTL210 Feb 2025#85
b.osei, post #62: Post #58 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one. Random versus fixed effects came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction. Go to post

Post #82 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Where the Random versus fixed effects reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.

29 likes in reply to #62 18mo
CR
crossover_reviewTL3Regular10 Feb 2025#86

I read post #84 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Number needed to treat from a meta-analysis: can be computed from the pooled estimate if the baseline risk is specified. More interpretable than pooled relative effects.

I would treat the number as indicative rather than as a measurement.

0 likes 18mo
RS
r.szaboTL210 Feb 2025#87

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

I have deliberately not rounded that, because the rounding is where the argument starts.

5 likes 18mo
GP
g.pemberton_ukTL3Regional · UK10 Feb 2025#88

No notes. Posting so the count is not one.

14 likes 18mo
BR
buffer_reviewTL3Regular10 Feb 2025#89
c.chowdhury, post #74: Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of things that should not have been averaged. Go to post

Narrowing post #86, because the general version has more than one answer.

Having read the whole Random versus fixed effects thread before replying: the question in the first post has not actually been answered yet, and three of us have answered a nearby one instead.

0 likes in reply to #74 18mo
SV
sa.vogelTL210 Feb 2025 · edited#90
HHidalgo, post #6: Offering a way to settle Random versus fixed effects rather than another opinion about it. Two measurements, taken the same way, a fortnight apart. If the difference is within the noise, the question was not answerable at this precision. Go to post

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

5 likes in reply to #6 18mo