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Outcomes · Progress reports · continued

Seven-day rolling means and why weekly readings mislead posts 91–120

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

BD
b.demirTL223 Jul 2026#91

Post #90 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Two questions I would want answered before drawing anything from the seven-day rolling data above: how were the cases selected, and what happened to the ones that dropped out.

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SB
s.bruunTL223 Jul 2026#92

Non-scale victories: muscle gain or maintenance, clothing fit, energy level, and capability (like climbing stairs without breathlessness) are measurements that scale-based weight misses.

The uncertainty is in the assumption, not in the calculation.

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BO
b.oseiTL223 Jul 2026#93
ca.haddad, post #14: Seven-day rolling is worth one more sentence than it usually gets, and the sentence is the one about how the number was arrived at. Go to post

Day-to-day body mass varies by more than a kilogram on hydration, glycogen and gut contents alone. A weekly reading is one noisy sample of that distribution.

0 likes in reply to #14 5d
AR
a.reyesTL4 Admin23 Jul 2026 · edited#94

On post #92 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

I would keep seven-day rolling and the decision it usually gets used for separate in this thread. They are related and they are not the same question, and merging them is why the last one went badly.

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KD
k.dahlbergTL224 Jul 2026#95

Seven-day rolling looks different depending on whether you are reading the primary literature or the summaries of it, and the difference is not in our favour.

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OB
owen.bradyTL4 Moderator24 Jul 2026#96

Weighing daily and reporting weekly is a better protocol than weighing weekly, because it separates the measurement frequency from the reporting frequency.

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RS
r.serranoTL224 Jul 2026#97
h.koodziej, post #24: Adding the measurement that post #21 says would settle it. Measurement noise: day-to-day body mass varies by more than a kilogram on hydration, glycogen, and gut contents alone. A weekly reading is a single noisy sample of a distribution. A seven-day rolling mean of daily readings has much lower noise. If anyone can point at the primary… Go to post

This is the answer, and the reason it is the answer is the more useful part.

0 likes in reply to #24 4d
MH
ms_hollowayTL4Mass spectrometrist24 Jul 2026#98
r.marsden, post #46: Filing a mild objection to the consensus on seven-day rolling. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Go to post

Worth separating two things that post #96 runs together.

Having read the whole seven-day rolling thread before replying: the question in the first post has not actually been answered yet, and three of us have answered a nearby one instead.

2 likes in reply to #46 4d
EI
e.iyerTL224 Jul 2026 · edited#99

Measurement noise: day-to-day body mass varies by more than a kilogram on hydration, glycogen, and gut contents alone. A weekly reading is a single noisy sample of a distribution. A seven-day rolling mean of daily readings has much lower noise.

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DV
dr.villanuevaTL3Physician24 Jul 2026#100
r.marsden, post #46: Filing a mild objection to the consensus on seven-day rolling. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Go to post

Second this, and I would have said it less carefully.

0 likes in reply to #46 4d
YM
y.mensahTL3Wiki editor24 Jul 2026#101

Post #99 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Self-reported intake is optimistic in a consistent direction, and saying so in your own report is more credible than not.

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RM
r.mensahTL224 Jul 2026#102

Measurement noise: day-to-day body mass varies by more than a kilogram on hydration, glycogen, and gut contents alone. A weekly reading is a single noisy sample of a distribution. A seven-day rolling mean of daily readings has much lower noise.

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BJ
b.jankowiakTL325 Jul 2026#103
PD
p.dialloTL225 Jul 2026 · edited#104
r.marsden, post #46: Filing a mild objection to the consensus on seven-day rolling. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Go to post

Agreed, and I will stop repeating the version of this I had been repeating.

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B
BirkelandTL3Regular25 Jul 2026#105
i.balogun, post #81: A seven-day rolling mean of daily readings has a much smaller standard error and makes most apparent plateaus and sudden drops disappear. Adding it because I spent an afternoon working it out and nobody should have to twice. Go to post

Small methodological point on seven-day rolling: repeating a measurement is cheap and resolves most of what is being argued about here at no cost to anyone.

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AK
a.kravchenkoTL225 Jul 2026#106

Seasonal patterns: some people report weight loss is slower in winter than summer. Body composition and activity changes might contribute. Noting the season is useful context.

I have said this before in a thread nobody could find, so it is worth repeating.

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BS
buffer_sheetTL3Regular25 Jul 2026#107

An honest declaration on seven-day rolling: I have a prior here and it is strong enough that you should weight what I say downward. Stating it rather than hiding it.

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ER
e.roosTL225 Jul 2026#108

Post #106 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

A seven-day rolling mean of daily readings has a much smaller standard error and makes most apparent plateaus and sudden drops disappear.

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DH
dietitian_hollisTL3Dietitian25 Jul 2026#109
k.dahlberg, post #95: Seven-day rolling looks different depending on whether you are reading the primary literature or the summaries of it, and the difference is not in our favour. Go to post

One caution on seven-day rolling: everything above assumes the underlying documentation is what it claims to be. That assumption is doing real work and is rarely stated.

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EH
e.halonenTL225 Jul 2026#110

I have been on both sides of the seven-day rolling argument in this category within eighteen months, which should tell you how strong the evidence for either side is.

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TW
t.waldenstrmTL2Member26 Jul 2026#111
z.iyer, post #3: I would put moderate confidence on the mainstream reading of seven-day rolling and no more. That is not scepticism for its own sake; it is where the sourcing actually stops. Go to post

State the method before the numbers. Same scale, same time of day, same conditions — without that a series is a collection of readings rather than a measurement.

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EK
ew.kuuselaTL226 Jul 2026 · edited#112
s.chowdhury, post #89: A single scale used throughout beats a more accurate scale introduced halfway through. Consistency beats accuracy for a trend. Go to post

Picking up post #109: that is the part I would want checked first.

Reframing seven-day rolling slightly, because I think the disagreement is about the question rather than the answer. If the question is "does it happen", yes. If it is "how often", nobody here knows.

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BuchholzTL2Member26 Jul 2026#113

Coming back to post #109, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

The documentation on seven-day rolling is better than this thread and I say that as someone who has posted in the thread.

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GD
g.danquahTL226 Jul 2026#114

Nothing here is medical advice and a progress report is a description of what happened to one person under uncontrolled conditions.

The right answer here may simply be that it has not been measured.

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LundqvistTL2Member26 Jul 2026#115
Birkeland, post #105: Small methodological point on seven-day rolling: repeating a measurement is cheap and resolves most of what is being argued about here at no cost to anyone. Go to post

My understanding of seven-day rolling is a few years old and may have been superseded. If it has been, I would genuinely like to know rather than keep repeating it.

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JS
j.solbergTL226 Jul 2026#116

Rate of change matters more than the absolute number for most of the questions people ask about their own series.

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KB
k.bettencourtTL2Member26 Jul 2026#117

I read post #113 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Day-to-day body mass varies by more than a kilogram on hydration, glycogen and gut contents alone. A weekly reading is one noisy sample of that distribution.

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TB
t.brandtTL226 Jul 2026#118

Post #117 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Weighing daily and reporting weekly is a better protocol than weighing weekly, because it separates the measurement frequency from the reporting frequency.

Worth saying I have only my own numbers here, and n is small.

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GD
glossary_deskTL3Regular27 Jul 2026 · edited#119
owen.brady, post #96: Weighing daily and reporting weekly is a better protocol than weighing weekly, because it separates the measurement frequency from the reporting frequency. Go to post

Second-hand on seven-day rolling, so weight it accordingly — someone whose method I trust told me this and I have not verified it myself.

4 likes in reply to #96 1d
AV
a.vestergaardTL227 Jul 2026#120

I have three months of notes on seven-day rolling and the honest summary is that the trend is real and the week-to-week numbers are noise. I nearly drew the opposite conclusion from the first fortnight.

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