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Evidence · Preprints · continued

Tracking a preprint to publication: a worked example posts 31–60

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

EM
endpoint_marginTL2Member2 Dec 2025#31
k.chukwu, post #28: Post #27 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit. Tracking a preprint: I have looked for the primary source twice and failed twice. Either it does not exist or it is somewhere I do not know to look, and I would like to know which. Go to post

Following this. I have the same question and no better information than the first post.

8 likes in reply to #28 8mo
RC
r.coelhoTL22 Dec 2025#32

Do not build anything on a preprint that you would mind rebuilding: if the preprint later changes substantially in revision or shows different results when published, your reasoning based on the preprint needs to be revised.

Posting it because the silence on this was starting to look like agreement.

19 likes 8mo
K
KStephanopoulosTL3Regular3 Dec 2025#33

Post #32 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

Tracking a preprint is one of those subjects where the general answer and the answer for a specific case diverge, and the thread will go in circles until someone says which one is being asked for.

0 likes 8mo
BT
b.teixeiraTL23 Dec 2025#34
t.pereira, post #23: Building anything durable on a preprint means committing to rebuild it. That is a reasonable trade for a fast-moving question and it should be an explicit one. I am confident about the direction and much less about the magnitude. Go to post

Where I part company with post #30, and it is a narrow parting.

Peer review as a filter: published papers have survived a review process that rejects many submissions. Preprints have not. Neither guarantees correctness, but publication history is a difference worth noting.

I have left out the parts I could not verify.

0 likes in reply to #23 8mo
O
OTeixeiraTL3Regular3 Dec 2025 · edited#35
k.chukwu, post #28: Post #27 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit. Tracking a preprint: I have looked for the primary source twice and failed twice. Either it does not exist or it is somewhere I do not know to look, and I would like to know which. Go to post

The honest position on most preprints in this field is that they are interesting and provisional, and that saying both is not fence-sitting.

12 likes in reply to #28 8mo
IO
i.oseiTL23 Dec 2025#36

Server repositories: medRxiv for medicine, bioRxiv for biology. Preprints on these servers are time-stamped and have DOIs even if they are later published elsewhere. Citing the preprint with its DOI is appropriate while noting it is unpublished.

26 likes 8mo
M
MJayawardenaTL3Regular3 Dec 2025#37

Do not build anything on a preprint that you would mind rebuilding: if the preprint later changes substantially in revision or shows different results when published, your reasoning based on the preprint needs to be revised.

0 likes 8mo
SO
s.oyelaranTL23 Dec 2025#38

I had written a reply contradicting post #34 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

Adding the boring version of tracking a preprint, because the interesting version keeps getting posted and the boring one is usually right.

Check the ordinary explanations, in order, and stop when one of them accounts for what you are seeing. Most of the time the second one does.

2 likes 8mo
GH
g.haalandTL3Regular3 Dec 2025#39

Post #36 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Retractions and corrections do not propagate well from preprint servers. A citation that was fine when made can quietly become wrong.

That is the practical version. The rigorous version is longer and says the same thing.

2 likes 8mo
SB
s.beaulieuTL23 Dec 2025#40

Author track record is a weak signal and it is a signal. A group that has published carefully for years is a different prior from an unknown one.

I would hold that lightly until someone with a larger sample weighs in.

8 likes 8mo
RM
r.molnarTL24 Dec 2025#41

Everything in post #39 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Sample size and pre-registration are checkable in a preprint exactly as in a paper, and they carry the same weight.

Speaking for myself and not for anyone else who has posted here.

3 likes 8mo
TS
taper_shiftTL3Regular4 Dec 2025#42
f.fenwick, post #25: Grateful for the specificity. Vague answers to this question are what sent me looking. Go to post

Narrowing post #39, because the general version has more than one answer.

Reading a preprint properly means doing some of the reviewer's job: methods first, then whether the analysis matches the plan, then the conclusion.

Not the whole picture, but the part of it I can speak to.

0 likes in reply to #25 8mo
JC
j.cabreraTL24 Dec 2025#43

Where a preprint's numbers are the basis of a claim being repeated here, someone should check whether the published version exists yet. That check is nearly always overdue.

23 likes 8mo
F
FFaulknerTL3Regular4 Dec 2025 · edited#44

The honest position on most preprints in this field is that they are interesting and provisional, and that saying both is not fence-sitting.

The variance between people here is larger than the effect being discussed.

10 likes 8mo
MR
m.restrepoTL24 Dec 2025#45
taper_shift, post #42: Narrowing post #39, because the general version has more than one answer. Reading a preprint properly means doing some of the reviewer's job: methods first, then whether the analysis matches the plan, then the conclusion. Not the whole picture, but the part of it I can speak to. Go to post

Helpful, and easy to find again, which is half of what a good reply is.

6 likes in reply to #42 8mo
T
ThibodeauTL3Regular4 Dec 2025#46
r.coelho, post #32: Do not build anything on a preprint that you would mind rebuilding: if the preprint later changes substantially in revision or shows different results when published, your reasoning based on the preprint needs to be revised. Posting it because the silence on this was starting to look like agreement. Go to post

Always label it as a preprint in any discussion. A preprint is not a published trial and it is not settled knowledge. Use it for hypothesis generation and for understanding emerging evidence, not for drawing definitive conclusions.

1 like in reply to #32 8mo
FC
f.chowdhuryTL24 Dec 2025#47

Peer review as a filter: published papers have survived a review process that rejects many submissions. Preprints have not. Neither guarantees correctness, but publication history is a difference worth noting.

One more caveat and then I will stop qualifying: the sample selected itself.

30 likes 8mo
CI
c.inglethorpeTL3Regular4 Dec 2025#48

Taking post #47 at face value and following it one step further.

What changes between preprint and publication: authors respond to reviewer comments, re-analyse data, correct errors found in peer review, and sometimes report different results from updated analyses. The published version is not the same as the preprint.

Take it as a starting point and not as a specification.

15 likes 8mo
HM
h.mensahTL24 Dec 2025#49

I would put moderate confidence on the mainstream reading of tracking a preprint and no more. That is not scepticism for its own sake; it is where the sourcing actually stops.

0 likes 8mo
LP
l.piresTL25 Dec 2025#50

The question underneath tracking a preprint is usually "how would I tell?" rather than "what is true?", and that one has a method attached to it.

Write down what you would expect to see under each hypothesis before you collect anything. If they predict the same observation, collecting it will not help.

32 likes 8mo
SR
s.roosTL25 Dec 2025#51
r.scholten, post #16: I read post #12 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite. Always label it as a preprint in any discussion. A preprint is not a published trial and it is not settled knowledge. Use it for hypothesis generation and for understanding emerging evidence, not for drawing definitive conclusions. That is a description of… Go to post

Post #50 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Check whether it was later published: searching for the preprint's first author and keywords in PubMed might find a published version. The published version is the stronger citation if it exists.

That matches what I was told, which is not the same as knowing it.

6 likes in reply to #16 8mo
GV
g.valckenaereTL3Regular5 Dec 2025#52

I read post #48 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

How to cite a preprint: author last name, first initial, et al. Title. Server name [preprint]. Posted date. Doi. Include the server name and note that it is a preprint.

It took me longer than it should have to see that.

17 likes 8mo
FF
f.fontaineTL25 Dec 2025#53
RM
r.marsdenTL3Regular5 Dec 2025#54

Where the tracking a preprint discussion usually stalls is that nobody wants to say "I do not know" and everyone is willing to say "it varies". Those are the same sentence with different clothes on.

1 like 8mo
NS
n.serranoTL25 Dec 2025#55
t.pereira, post #23: Building anything durable on a preprint means committing to rebuild it. That is a reasonable trade for a fast-moving question and it should be an explicit one. I am confident about the direction and much less about the magnitude. Go to post

Narrowing post #54, because the general version has more than one answer.

Where a preprint contradicts a published trial, the prior should favour the trial. Where it extends one, the preprint can be genuinely useful.

Happy to be the one who is wrong here if it settles the question.

3 likes in reply to #23 8mo
L
LeitermanTL3Regular5 Dec 2025 · edited#56

Offering a way to settle tracking a preprint rather than another opinion about it. Two measurements, taken the same way, a fortnight apart. If the difference is within the noise, the question was not answerable at this precision.

11 likes 8mo
GE
g.ekstromTL25 Dec 2025#57

Second-hand on tracking a preprint, so weight it accordingly — someone whose method I trust told me this and I have not verified it myself.

32 likes 8mo
B
BBramleyTL3Regular6 Dec 2025#58

Nothing to add, except that this is the answer I would give if asked.

0 likes 8mo
KO
k.okaforTL26 Dec 2025#59

The honest position on most preprints in this field is that they are interesting and provisional, and that saying both is not fence-sitting.

Reporting the observation and leaving the explanation open deliberately.

1 like 8mo
JH
j.habermannTL3Regular6 Dec 2025#60

Say it is a preprint in the first line rather than the last. Everything downstream depends on that status and readers arriving from search will not scroll for it.

7 likes 8mo