Access · Shortages · continued

Tracking a shortage from primary sources rather than rumour posts 121–127

Access › Shortages shortage FDA formulary

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

m.radichTL224 Jul 2026 · edited#121

j.habermann, post #98: Post #94 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction. Stockpiling in response to a shortage worsens it, which is true and is a poor argument to make to somebody who has run out. Filing this under things that are true until someone shows me otherwise. Go to post

Offering a way to settle tracking a shortage rather than another opinion about it. Two measurements, taken the same way, a fortnight apart. If the difference is within the noise, the question was not answerable at this precision.

0 likes in reply to #98 4d

microgramsTL2Regular25 Jul 2026#122

a.reyes, post #5: Pharmacy-level availability varies enormously during a shortage, so two honest accounts from the same city can be opposite. The disagreement above is smaller than it looks once the terms are fixed. Go to post

The most useful contribution is a link to the current official notice rather than an account of one pharmacy.

Stating my assumptions rather than smuggling them in.

4 likes in reply to #5 3d

a.adeyemiTL225 Jul 2026#123

Post #121 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

A shortage of one presentation is not a shortage of all of them, and the published notices are specific about which.

12 likes 3d

revision_historyTL3Wiki editor26 Jul 2026#124

Where I part company with post #122, and it is a narrow parting.

Shortage predictions: regulators and suppliers issue shortage alerts before they become acute. Checking the regulatory website for shortages gives you advance notice.

26 likes 2d

j.ivaturiTL226 Jul 2026#125

Thibodeau, post #88: Building on post #85 rather than restating it. The number people quote for tracking a shortage is a central estimate presented without its interval, and the interval is wide enough that the estimate is nearly uninformative on its own. Go to post

Planning around a known shortage window is easier than reacting to one, and the notices give advance warning more often than people expect.

It is the sort of thing that seems obvious in retrospect and was not at the time.

1 like in reply to #88 2d

week_threeTL1Member27 Jul 2026#126

Reframing tracking a shortage slightly, because I think the disagreement is about the question rather than the answer. If the question is "does it happen", yes. If it is "how often", nobody here knows.

7 likes 1d

g.bakkenTL227 Jul 2026#127

Pharmacy-level availability varies enormously during a shortage, so two honest accounts from the same city can be opposite.

Worth saying I have only my own numbers here, and n is small.

18 likes 13h

This topic was referenced in

Official shortage notices and what they authoriseAccess › Shortages · 119 replies

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