[2026 update] Regional warehouse stock versus direct despatch

Picking up post #21: that is the part I would want checked first.

The useful distinction on Regional warehouse stock versus direct is between what was measured and what was inferred from it. Both end up in the same sentence and only one of them has error bars.

Noted, and thank you for writing it out rather than summarising it.

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

Adding it because I spent an afternoon working it out and nobody should have to twice.

The arithmetic in post #83 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

The reason Regional warehouse stock versus direct is hard to answer is that the obvious measurement and the relevant quantity are not the same thing, and substituting one for the other is silent.

Counterpoint on Regional warehouse stock versus direct, offered without confidence: the same observation is consistent with a much duller explanation, and nobody has ruled the dull one out.

I had written a reply contradicting post #102 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

Practical experience of Regional warehouse stock versus direct, offered as one case with the conditions stated, not as a general finding. Conditions first, because they are what make it interpretable.

Practical answer on Regional warehouse stock versus direct, since the theoretical one is upthread: do the simplest check first, write down the result, and only then decide whether the complicated explanation is needed. It usually is not.

Post #117 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

I read the earlier replies on Regional warehouse stock versus direct twice before writing this, because I had assumed the opposite and wanted to be sure I was disagreeing with what was said rather than what I expected.

Nothing to add on the substance. Thank you for taking the question at face value.