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Sourcing · Logistics · continued

Assessing a warm arrival: the decision process — one year on posts 31–60

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

ER
e.roosTL229 May 2024#31

Taking post #28 at face value and following it one step further.

Two sentences on Assessing a warm arrival and then I will stop, because the rest is speculation and the thread is better without mine.

What is documented is narrow. What is inferred from it is broad. The gap between them is where every argument here lives.

0 likes 2.2y
SG
s.grahameTL2Member29 May 2024#32

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

2 likes 2.2y
AK
a.kravchenkoTL229 May 2024#33
z.iyer, post #12: Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance. A weak preference rather than a position. Go to post

Thank you for taking the time. That was more work than a reply usually is.

8 likes in reply to #12 2.2y
CI
citation_indexTL2Member29 May 2024#34
j.ivaturi, post #20: Post #16 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one. Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing. Go to post

Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.

Filing this under things that are true until someone shows me otherwise.

19 likes in reply to #20 2.2y
VR
v.rautioTL229 May 2024#35

My understanding of Assessing a warm arrival is a few years old and may have been superseded. If it has been, I would genuinely like to know rather than keep repeating it.

0 likes 2.2y
B
BirkelandTL3Regular29 May 2024#36

An observation about Assessing a warm arrival that I cannot explain and am posting anyway, on the principle that unexplained observations are more useful public than private.

0 likes 2.2y
RM
r.mensahTL229 May 2024#37
b.fonseca, post #17: Post #14 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different. The number people quote for Assessing a warm arrival is a central estimate presented without its interval, and the interval is wide enough that the estimate is nearly uninformative on its own. Go to post

Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.

Genuinely open to being wrong about this one.

4 likes in reply to #17 2.2y
BJ
b.jankowiakTL3Regular29 May 2024#38

I read post #34 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

The claim about Assessing a warm arrival upthread is stronger than its source supports. I have read the source. The source says "associated with" and the post says "causes".

13 likes 2.2y
CC
c.castellanosTL229 May 2024 · edited#39

Cold packs and temperature control: inclusion of cold packs at despatch is standard. Whether they maintain temperature through transit depends on journey duration and ambient temperature. Long journeys through warm climates put product at risk.

Caveat: everything above assumes the paperwork is what it says it is.

1 like 2.2y
YM
y.mensahTL3Wiki editor30 May 2024#40

Clear enough that I do not think I have a follow-up, which is unusual.

7 likes 2.2y
ED
e.dalgleishTL3Regular30 May 2024#41

Reframing Assessing a warm arrival slightly, because I think the disagreement is about the question rather than the answer. If the question is "does it happen", yes. If it is "how often", nobody here knows.

26 likes 2.2y
RI
r.ilungaTL230 May 2024 · edited#42

The same route behaves differently in different months. A single good or bad experience is one sample from a distribution.

It cost nothing to check and would have cost something not to.

12 likes 2.2y
IL
integrator_logTL3Regular30 May 2024#43

Agreed, and I will stop repeating the version of this I had been repeating.

2 likes 2.2y
FL
f.lindholmTL230 May 2024#44
e.dalgleish, post #41: Reframing Assessing a warm arrival slightly, because I think the disagreement is about the question rather than the answer. If the question is "does it happen", yes. If it is "how often", nobody here knows. Go to post

Picking up post #42: that is the part I would want checked first.

Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.

0 likes in reply to #41 2.2y
BS
buffer_sheetTL3Regular30 May 2024#45

Coming back to post #44, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.

19 likes 2.2y
BW
b.wikstromTL230 May 2024#46

Documentation after arrival: photograph the parcel and its contents on arrival. If something later turns out wrong (damage, loss, wrong item) you have evidence of the condition it arrived in.

8 likes 2.2y
BE
bench_entryTL3Regular30 May 2024#47

If you are new and reading this thread for the answer to Assessing a warm arrival: the answer is conditional, the conditions are in the third reply, and the rest of the thread is worth skipping.

0 likes 2.2y
PD
p.dialloTL230 May 2024#48
y.mensah, post #40: Clear enough that I do not think I have a follow-up, which is unusual. Go to post

This follows post #47 rather than contradicting it.

Where the Assessing a warm arrival discussion usually stalls is that nobody wants to say "I do not know" and everyone is willing to say "it varies". Those are the same sentence with different clothes on.

0 likes in reply to #40 2.2y
O
OkaforTL3Regular30 May 2024#49
y.mensah, post #40: Clear enough that I do not think I have a follow-up, which is unusual. Go to post

Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.

Adding it in case it saves somebody the afternoon it cost me.

13 likes in reply to #40 2.2y
FI
f.ibarraTL230 May 2024#50

Saving this. It is the version I will quote when the question comes round again.

4 likes 2.2y
OL
o.lindgrenTL230 May 2024#51
RL
r.lundgrenTL230 May 2024#52

Post #48 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

Delivery to an address where somebody is present is worth more for cold-chain material than any packing decision available to the supplier.

3 likes 2.2y
DM
d.moreauTL2Regular30 May 2024#53

Two questions I would want answered before drawing anything from the Assessing a warm arrival data above: how were the cases selected, and what happened to the ones that dropped out.

16 likes 2.2y
YI
y.ibarraTL230 May 2024#54

On Assessing a warm arrival the community has more anecdote than the confidence in this thread implies, and I include my own contribution in that.

31 likes 2.2y
PE
ppm_errorTL3Analytical chemist30 May 2024#55

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

Worth reading the earlier posts in this thread before acting on mine.

1 like 2.2y
AP
a.pereiraTL230 May 2024#56

Worth separating two things that post #52 runs together.

What I want from this Assessing a warm arrival thread is the list of things that would need to be true for the claim to hold. If we can write that list, we can check it.

6 likes 2.2y
FP
forest_plotTL3Evidence synthesis30 May 2024 · edited#57

The most useful logistics record is boring: order date, dispatch date, arrival date, condition on arrival. Four fields, and they answer most questions here.

22 likes 2.2y
NC
n.cardosoTL230 May 2024#58
a.adebayo, post #18: Reading this Assessing a warm arrival thread as someone who came in with a fixed view: the third and seventh replies moved me and the confident ones did not. Go to post

Posting my Assessing a warm arrival numbers with the method attached so they can be discounted properly. Uncontrolled, unblinded, and collected by someone who wanted a particular answer.

0 likes in reply to #18 2.2y
DB
d.bramleyTL3Regular30 May 2024#59

Where I would push back on the Assessing a warm arrival consensus is the confidence, not the direction. The direction looks right. The confidence is borrowed.

3 likes 2.2y
VK
v.kjaerTL230 May 2024#60

Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.

Take the reasoning and check the arithmetic; I do not always get it right.

10 likes 2.2y