Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
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Sourcing · Logistics · continued
Packaging that arrived damaged: documenting it properly — a second dataset posts 31–60
This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.
I had written a reply contradicting post #31 and deleted it. Here is what survived.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
The uncertainty is in the assumption, not in the calculation.
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a.kowalczyk, post #2: Everything in the opening post holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have. Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing. Take the reasoning and check the arithmetic; I do not always get it right. Go to post
Confirming post #31 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
The short version is the first sentence; the rest is why.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
Old habit: I write down the expected answer before I calculate it.
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This follows post #35 rather than contradicting it.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
I have said this before in a thread nobody could find, so it is worth repeating.
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Coming back to post #35, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
Adding this to the thread rather than to the wiki, because I am not confident enough for the wiki.
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Collapsed as off-topic by two members at trust level 3 or above
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
I would put this at better than even and not much better.
Post #35 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
I would hold that lightly until someone with a larger sample weighs in.
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Taking post #39 at face value and following it one step further.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
That is the practical version. The rigorous version is longer and says the same thing.
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j.asante, post #40: Taking post #39 at face value and following it one step further. Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing. That is the practical version. The rigorous version is longer and says the same thing. Go to post
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
h.jansen, post #9: Adding the measurement that post #8 says would settle it. Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one. Go to post
Everything in post #39 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
It is the kind of thing that is obvious once and never again.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
Where I would look next, rather than where I would stop.
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a.nascimento, post #5: Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against. Go to post
The arithmetic in post #43 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
The step people skip is the one I have spelled out.
Answering the question post #42 raises rather than the one it answers.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
The conclusion is tentative; the arithmetic underneath it is not.
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Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
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erratum_file, post #10: Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing. Go to post
Following this. I have the same question and no better information than the first post.
Everything in post #50 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
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forest_plot, post #22: Answering the question post #20 raises rather than the one it answers. Documentation after arrival: photograph the parcel and its contents on arrival. If something later turns out wrong (damage, loss, wrong item) you have evidence of the condition it arrived in. I would be glad to be shown a cleaner way of putting this. Go to post
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
The general answer and the answer for your case may diverge here.
m.stephanopoulos, post #11: Post #9 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one. Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against. Not a conclusion. A place to stand while looking for one. Go to post
Same experience here, different supplier, so it is at least not unique to one of them.
eire_reader, post #30: Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against. I would put a moderate confidence on that and no more. Go to post
Post #53 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
I have separated what I observed from what I concluded, which does not always happen.
Taking post #57 at face value and following it one step further.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
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Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
This is the version I would want a new member to read first.
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