This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.
Post #58 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
I keep a log of this specifically because memory is unreliable about it.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
One case, stated as one case.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
That matches what I have seen, for whatever a single anecdote is worth.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
On post #65 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
The right answer here may simply be that it has not been measured.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
Written in the hope of being told what I have missed.
Everything in post #67 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
The interesting part of this is the exception, and I do not understand the exception.
Narrowing post #71, because the general version has more than one answer.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
Worth one more sentence than it usually gets.
Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.
A modest claim, modestly supported.
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