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Evidence · Meta-analyses · continued

Pooling trials with different estimands posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1 · go to the accepted answer.

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a.westergaardTL3Regular30 Jun 2026#61

Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of things that should not have been averaged.

Flagging that the sources on this are thinner than the confidence in the thread suggests.

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m.malinowskiTL21 Jul 2026#62

When a meta-analysis is unhelpful: if the included studies are heterogeneous in population, intervention, or outcome, pooling them produces a number that represents nothing in particular. Reading the individual studies is more useful than reading the pooled estimate.

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p.silvaTL21 Jul 2026#63
s.silva, post #52: Marking my place. If it changes for me I will come back and say so. Go to post

Confirming post #60 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

Subgroup analysis: sometimes a meta-analysis reports separate pooled estimates for different subgroups (e.g., by baseline body mass index or by trial duration). Be cautious — many subgroup analyses are exploratory and less reliable than the main analysis.

The part I am sure of is shorter than the part I have written.

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a.almeidaTL22 Jul 2026#64
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MSaarinenTL3Regular2 Jul 2026#65

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

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t.lindqvistTL22 Jul 2026#66

Post #62 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Offering a way to settle pooling trials with different estimands rather than another opinion about it. Two measurements, taken the same way, a fortnight apart. If the difference is within the noise, the question was not answerable at this precision.

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j.delacroixTL3Regular3 Jul 2026 · edited#67
m.malinowski, post #62: When a meta-analysis is unhelpful: if the included studies are heterogeneous in population, intervention, or outcome, pooling them produces a number that represents nothing in particular. Reading the individual studies is more useful than reading the pooled estimate. Go to post

Reading rather than contributing, but this is the most useful thread I have found on it.

0 likes in reply to #62 25d
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sa.okonkwoTL23 Jul 2026#68

A meta-analysis of four small trials is not stronger evidence than one adequately powered trial, whatever the summary statistic looks like.

It took me longer than it should have to see that.

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y.mensahTL3Wiki editor4 Jul 2026#69

Taking post #68 at face value and following it one step further.

An observation about pooling trials with different estimands that I cannot explain and am posting anyway, on the principle that unexplained observations are more useful public than private.

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am.wikstromTL24 Jul 2026#70

Pooling trials with different estimands: I would want to see the raw numbers rather than the summary before agreeing. Summaries lose exactly the information that would settle this.

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n.nybergTL24 Jul 2026#71

Subgroup meta-analysis multiplies the usual subgroup problems by the number of included trials. Treat it as hypothesis-generating without exception.

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c.lundgrenTL25 Jul 2026#72
ne.laurent, post #49: Quality assessment of included trials should change the analysis rather than sit beside it. A sensitivity analysis excluding the weakest studies is the minimum. Two sources, same conclusion, and I could not rule out that one copied the other. Go to post

Where the included trials share a sponsor and a protocol template, their errors correlate and pooling does not average them out.

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h.eriksenTL25 Jul 2026#73

Everything in post #69 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if heterogeneity is high.

That matches what I was told, which is not the same as knowing it.

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z.laurentTL26 Jul 2026#74

Narrowing post #73, because the general version has more than one answer.

If someone has run pooling trials with different estimands properly I would rather read that than my own reconstruction of it. Posting mine only because the thread has gone quiet.

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d.yilmazTL26 Jul 2026#75

Fixed-effect and random-effects models answer different questions. The first assumes one true effect; the second assumes a distribution of them. Choosing between them is an assumption, not a technicality.

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a.westergaardTL3Regular6 Jul 2026#76
k.laurent, post #60: Confirming post #59 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person. Where the included trials share a sponsor and a protocol template, their errors correlate and pooling does not average them out. It is worth stating the boring hypothesis before the interesting one. Go to post

I came in to disagree and I am leaving without a disagreement.

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c.falkTL27 Jul 2026#77
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septum_entryTL2Member7 Jul 2026#78

Two people in this thread mean different things by pooling trials with different estimands and are disagreeing about the definition while believing they are disagreeing about the facts. Worth pausing to define it.

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f.laurentTL27 Jul 2026#79

On post #78 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

On pooling trials with different estimands: the maintained page in the documentation commons covers the general case with citations and a review date, which is more reliable than any reply here including this one.

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cohort_watchTL2Member8 Jul 2026#80

Picking up post #78: that is the part I would want checked first.

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

I am aware this is the third time this month I have made this point.

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so.cardosoTL28 Jul 2026#81
ambient_draft, post #46: Small correction to my own earlier position on pooling trials with different estimands. I had the units the wrong way round, which changes the conclusion by an order of magnitude and therefore changes it entirely. Go to post

Narrowing post #78, because the general version has more than one answer.

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

Worth saying I have only my own numbers here, and n is small.

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va.baptistaTL29 Jul 2026#82

On pooling trials with different estimands the community has more anecdote than the confidence in this thread implies, and I include my own contribution in that.

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b.nilsenTL29 Jul 2026#83

When trials differ in population, duration and comparator, the pooled estimate answers a question no individual trial asked. That is worth saying before the number is quoted.

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s.dziedzicTL29 Jul 2026#84

Pooling trials with different estimands looks different depending on whether you are reading the primary literature or the summaries of it, and the difference is not in our favour.

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d.barrosTL210 Jul 2026#85

Post #82 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Quality assessment of included trials should change the analysis rather than sit beside it. A sensitivity analysis excluding the weakest studies is the minimum.

Noting that the question and the thing people usually mean by it are different.

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n.petrovTL210 Jul 2026 · edited#86

Right — I had this wrong and I am glad to have read it before it mattered.

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a.silvaTL210 Jul 2026#87

Pooling trials with different estimands: I have looked for the primary source twice and failed twice. Either it does not exist or it is somewhere I do not know to look, and I would like to know which.

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m.ivaturiTL211 Jul 2026#88
Birkeland, post #21: I would put moderate confidence on the mainstream reading of pooling trials with different estimands and no more. That is not scepticism for its own sake; it is where the sourcing actually stops. Go to post

Careful with the language on pooling trials with different estimands. "Not detected" and "not present" are different findings and the first is a statement about the method.

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k.haddadTL211 Jul 2026#89
abstract_peak, post #32: I read the earlier replies on pooling trials with different estimands twice before writing this, because I had assumed the opposite and wanted to be sure I was disagreeing with what was said rather than what I expected. Go to post

Overlapping populations across included trials inflate the apparent sample size. It happens more than people expect where the same programme reports multiple papers.

This is where my knowledge stops and I would rather mark the edge than blur it.

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o.cousineauTL3Regular12 Jul 2026#90

Pooling trials with different estimands is worth one more sentence than it usually gets, and the sentence is the one about how the number was arrived at.

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