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Evidence · Meta-analyses · continued

Pooling trials with different estimands posts 91–120

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1 · go to the accepted answer.

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desiccant_notesTL2Member12 Jul 2026#91
m.restrepo, post #8: Overlapping populations across included trials inflate the apparent sample size. It happens more than people expect where the same programme reports multiple papers. Adding the caveat now so it does not have to be extracted later. Go to post

Individual participant data pooling is a much stronger design than aggregate pooling and is rare because it requires cooperation rather than a search.

1 like in reply to #8 16d
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m.ramosTL212 Jul 2026#92

Bookmarking this. I will come back when I have something worth adding.

0 likes 16d
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g.valckenaereTL3Regular13 Jul 2026 · edited#93

Where I part company with post #91, and it is a narrow parting.

Where the pooling trials with different estimands discussion usually stalls is that nobody wants to say "I do not know" and everyone is willing to say "it varies". Those are the same sentence with different clothes on.

15 likes 15d
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s.roosTL213 Jul 2026#94

Quality assessment of included trials should change the analysis rather than sit beside it. A sensitivity analysis excluding the weakest studies is the minimum.

That is the honest state of it as of this week.

6 likes 15d
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j.vandermolenTL3Regular13 Jul 2026#95
ka.batista, post #18: Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified. Go to post

Answering the question post #91 raises rather than the one it answers.

My position on pooling trials with different estimands is current rather than settled. I have revised it once already and I expect to again, so treat it accordingly.

0 likes in reply to #18 14d
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a.lindqvistTL214 Jul 2026#96
m.ramos, post #92: Bookmarking this. I will come back when I have something worth adding. Go to post

The arithmetic in post #95 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

The arithmetic on pooling trials with different estimands is the easy part and it is where the errors are, which is an uncomfortable combination. Show your working and someone will catch it.

30 likes in reply to #92 14d
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LeitermanTL3Regular14 Jul 2026#97

A meta-analysis of four small trials is not stronger evidence than one adequately powered trial, whatever the summary statistic looks like.

That much is documented. The rest is how I have interpreted it.

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n.serranoTL215 Jul 2026#98

Subgroup meta-analysis multiplies the usual subgroup problems by the number of included trials. Treat it as hypothesis-generating without exception.

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BBramleyTL3Regular15 Jul 2026#99

Adding what did not work for me on pooling trials with different estimands, since the failures never get written up and they are half the useful information.

5 likes 13d
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g.ekstromTL215 Jul 2026#100

Pooling trials with different estimands has a well-known answer and a correct answer, and the interesting work is establishing that they are the same. Nobody has done that here yet.

0 likes 13d
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aliquot_lineTL3Regular16 Jul 2026#101

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

If this contradicts something upthread, the upthread version may well be the better one.

2 likes 12d
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r.weissTL216 Jul 2026 · edited#102

Double extraction with disagreement resolution is standard and is worth checking for, because single extraction errors are common and non-random.

0 likes 12d
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i.aranda_esTL2Translator · ES16 Jul 2026#103
abstract_peak, post #32: I read the earlier replies on pooling trials with different estimands twice before writing this, because I had assumed the opposite and wanted to be sure I was disagreeing with what was said rather than what I expected. Go to post

Thank you — that answers what I came here to find out.

19 likes in reply to #32 12d
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k.marchandTL217 Jul 2026#104

Taking post #102 at face value and following it one step further.

Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of things that should not have been averaged.

The literature is thinner on this than the confidence in the thread implies.

8 likes 11d
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NorringtonTL3Regular17 Jul 2026#105

Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if heterogeneity is high.

4 likes 11d
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f.piresTL217 Jul 2026#106

Pooling trials with different estimands came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction.

0 likes 10d
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NicolaidesTL3Regular18 Jul 2026#107
p.fontaine, post #22: Where the included trials share a sponsor and a protocol template, their errors correlate and pooling does not average them out. The short version is the first sentence; the rest is why. Go to post

Worth separating two things that post #104 runs together.

If you are new and reading this thread for the answer to pooling trials with different estimands: the answer is conditional, the conditions are in the third reply, and the rest of the thread is worth skipping.

27 likes in reply to #22 10d
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w.verhoevenTL218 Jul 2026#108
f.pires, post #106: Pooling trials with different estimands came up in a thread eighteen months ago and was answered well. I cannot find it, which is itself the problem, so here is the reconstruction. Go to post

This follows post #107 rather than contradicting it.

When trials differ in population, duration and comparator, the pooled estimate answers a question no individual trial asked. That is worth saying before the number is quoted.

Not disagreeing with anyone above, just adding the bit I keep having to look up.

13 likes in reply to #106 10d
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formulary_notesTL3Regular19 Jul 2026#109

I had written a reply contradicting post #107 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

The honest answer on pooling trials with different estimands is that it depends, and the useful part is the list of what it depends on. Four items, in rough order of how much they matter.

Most people get the first two right and then argue about the fourth.

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h.lindqvistTL219 Jul 2026#110
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PharmNotes_WhitfieldTL4Pharmacist19 Jul 2026#111

Two questions I would want answered before drawing anything from the pooling trials with different estimands data above: how were the cases selected, and what happened to the ones that dropped out.

5 likes 9d
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n.brobergTL220 Jul 2026#112
m.oyelaran, post #24: That reframing is the whole thing. The facts I already had. Go to post

When a meta-analysis is unhelpful: if the included studies are heterogeneous in population, intervention, or outcome, pooling them produces a number that represents nothing in particular. Reading the individual studies is more useful than reading the pooled estimate.

14 likes in reply to #24 8d
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orbitrap_olaTL3Mass spectrometrist20 Jul 2026 · edited#113

Adding the measurement that post #111 says would settle it.

The thing about pooling trials with different estimands that took me longest to accept is that a plausible mechanism is not evidence of an effect. It is a reason to look, not a result.

0 likes 8d
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i.almeidaTL220 Jul 2026#114

Post #112 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Posting my pooling trials with different estimands numbers with the method attached so they can be discounted properly. Uncontrolled, unblinded, and collected by someone who wanted a particular answer.

0 likes 8d
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dr_seongTL3Physician21 Jul 2026#115

That is a cleaner way of putting what I was circling around.

2 likes 7d
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ro.friskTL221 Jul 2026#116
t.ibarra, post #37: Quietly grateful for the plain phrasing. Not every thread gets that. Go to post

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

I would put a moderate confidence on that and no more.

9 likes in reply to #37 7d
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customs_ledgerTL3Regular21 Jul 2026#117

Overlapping populations across included trials inflate the apparent sample size. It happens more than people expect where the same programme reports multiple papers.

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f.weissTL222 Jul 2026#118

On post #116 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Fixed-effect and random-effects models answer different questions. The first assumes one true effect; the second assumes a distribution of them. Choosing between them is an assumption, not a technicality.

0 likes 6d
RR
r.restrepoTL222 Jul 2026#119
g.valckenaere, post #93: Where I part company with post #91, and it is a narrow parting. Where the pooling trials with different estimands discussion usually stalls is that nobody wants to say "I do not know" and everyone is willing to say "it varies". Those are the same sentence with different clothes on. Go to post

Building on post #118 rather than restating it.

Subgroup analysis: sometimes a meta-analysis reports separate pooled estimates for different subgroups (e.g., by baseline body mass index or by trial duration). Be cautious — many subgroup analyses are exploratory and less reliable than the main analysis.

I have kept the units in throughout, for the obvious reason.

0 likes in reply to #93 6d
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c.lundgrenTL222 Jul 2026#120
r.coelho, post #1: On the subject in the title: Pooling trials with different estimands Working notes rather than a conclusion. Asking about pooling trials with different estimands on behalf of the question I keep seeing asked badly, including by me. Framed properly it is answerable. Framed the usual way it is not, and that is most of why the previous… Go to post

Post #116 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

I have been on both sides of the pooling trials with different estimands argument in this category within eighteen months, which should tell you how strong the evidence for either side is.

5 likes in reply to #1 6d