Tracking that stops updating and then resumes — the long version

Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.

Post #12 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.

I am confident about the direction and much less about the magnitude.

A tracking gap at a customs facility is the most common cause of an unexpectedly long transit and the segment nobody has visibility of.

I would put a moderate confidence on that and no more.

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

On reflection I would soften that slightly.

Answering the question post #32 raises rather than the one it answers.

Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.

I have deliberately not rounded that, because the rounding is where the argument starts.

Tracking accuracy at each hop is a reasonable proxy for how much attention the shipment is getting, and it costs nothing to note.

That is consistent with mine, for whatever one more account is worth.

Adding the measurement that post #63 says would settle it.

Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.

The general case is well covered; this is the awkward specific one.

Tracking accuracy at each hop is a reasonable proxy for how much attention the shipment is getting, and it costs nothing to note.

The claim is narrower than it sounds, and deliberately so.